Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund II (Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund II) Predictability Rank

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What is Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund II Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund II Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund II (Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund II) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund II (AMEX:EIA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

https://www.eatonvance.com

Eaton Vance California Municipal Bond Fund II is a closed-end investment company. Its objective is to provide current income exempt from regular federal income tax, including alternative minimum tax and in state-specific funds, tax in its specified state.

Executives

Marcus L. Smith	other: Trustee	555 17TH STREET, SUITE 3700, DCT INDUSTRIAL TRUST INC., DENVER CO 80202
Keith Quinton	other: Trustee	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Froio Richard F Sr	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O BISYS FUND SERVICES, 60 STATE ST., BOSTON MA 02129
Mark R Fetting	other: Trustee	LEGG MASON, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Scott E Wennerholm	other: Trustee	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Laurie G Hylton	officer: Chief Financial Officer	255 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Bank Of America Corp /de/	10 percent owner	BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATE CENTER, 100 N TRYON ST, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Blue Ridge Investments, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	ONE BRYANT PARK, NEW YORK NY 10036
Group Ag Ubs	other: Former 10% Owner	BAHNHOFSTRASSE 45, ZURICH V8 CH-8001
Susan J Sutherland	other: Trustee	MONTPELIER HOUSE, 94 PITTS BAY ROAD, HAMILTON D0 HM 08
George J. Gorman	other: Trustee	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
Cynthia Frost	other: Trustee	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02148
Lynn A Stout	director	C/O EATON VANCE, THE EATON VANCE BLDG., 255 STATE ST., BOSTON MA 02109
Valerie Mosley	other: Trustee	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110
James F Kirchner	officer: Treasurer	TWO INTERNATIONAL PLACE, BOSTON MA 02110

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