Eledon Pharmaceuticals (Eledon Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Eledon Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eledon Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Eledon Pharmaceuticals (Eledon Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Eledon Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:ELDN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2TK:Germany

Address

19900 MacArthur Boulevard, Suite 550, Irvine, CA, USA, 92612

Website

https://www.eledon.com

Eledon Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. The firm is focused on transplantation and autoimmune diseases. It targets CD40L pathway to develop potential treatments for patients living with an autoimmune disease, patients requiring an organ or cell-based transplant, and for patients living with ALS. The company's lead compound in development is AT-1501 which is the next generation anti-CD40L antibody.

Executives

Allan Kirk	director	C/O ELEDON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 19900 MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 550, IRVINE CA 92612
Robinson James A. Jr.	director	852 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Biotechnology Value Fund L P	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Steven Perrin	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O ANELIXIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1500 DISTRICT AVENUE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
David-alexandre C Gros	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	220 MARLBOROUGH STREET, #6, BOSTON MA 02116
Jan Hillson	director	C/O ELEDON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 19900 MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 550, IRVINE CA 92612
Paul Sean Little	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	SIENTRA, INC., 420 SOUTH FAIRVIEW AVENUE, SUITE 200, SANTA BARBARA CA 93117
Bryan E. Smith	officer: See Remarks	C/O UROVANT SCIENCES, INC., 5281 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92617
June Lee	director	C/O MYOKARDIA, INC., 333 ALLERTON AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Orbimed Israel Biofund Gp Limited Partnership	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 1022-4629
Logos Global Management Lp	10 percent owner	1 LETTERMAN DRIVE, BLDG C, SUITE C3-350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Bvf Partners L P/il	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Mark N Lampert	10 percent owner	1 SANSOME ST, 30TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Biotechnology Value Fund Ii Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Gp Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104