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EarthLink Holdings (EarthLink Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is EarthLink Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


EarthLink Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

EarthLink Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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EarthLink Holdings (EarthLink Holdings) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
EarthLink Holdings Corp was incorporated on December 3, 2013 as a Delaware corporation in connection with the Holding Company Reorganization. On December 31, 2013, through the creation of a new holding company structure, EarthLink, Inc. merged with EarthLink, LLC, which became a wholly-owned subsidiary of a new publicly traded parent company, EarthLink Holdings Corp. The Company together with its subsidiaries provides managed network, security and cloud services to business and residential customers in the United States. It also offers data, voice and managed network services to retail and wholesale business customers; and provides Internet access and related value-added services to residential customers. The Company operates a network including more than 29,000 route miles of fiber and 90 metro fiber rings that provide data and voice IP service coverage across more than 90 percent of the United States. The Company operates four segments aligned around distinct customer categories including Enterprise/Mid-Market, Small Business, Carrier/Transport and Consumer. The Company's Enterprise/Mid-Market segment provides data, voice and managed network services to distributed multi-site business customers; Small Business segment provides data, voice and managed network services to small, often single-site business customers; Carrier/Transport segment provides transmission capacity and other data, voice and managed network services to telecommunications carriers and large enterprises; and Consumer Services segment provides nationwide Internet access and related value-added services to residential customers. The Company faces competition from competitors including AT&T, CenturyLink, Verizon, XO and Zayo. It also faces competition from ILECs, CLECs, cable service providers and wireless and satellite service providers. The Company's communications services are subject to varying degrees of federal, state and local regulation.
Executives
Walter Turek director 911 PANORAMA TRAIL S, ROCHESTER NY 14625
R. Gerard Salemme director 815 CONNECTICUT AVE., SUITE 610, WASHINGTON DC 20036
Kathy S Lane director C/O GILLETTE COMPANY, PRUDENTIAL TOWER BUILDING, BOSTON MA 02199
Julie Ann Shimer director 18453 LAS CUMBRES ROAD, LOS GATOS CA 95033
Gerard Brossard officer: EVP, Enterprise & Mid-Market 1170 PEACHTREE STREET, ATLANTA GA 30309
Valerie C Benjamin officer: SVP, Human Resources 1375 PEACHTREE STREET, ATLANTA GA 30309
Susan D Bowick director C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD CO, 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Joseph F Eazor director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1170 PEACHTREE STREET, SUITE 900, ATLANTA GA 30309
Marc F Stoll director C/O ARISTA NETWORKS, INC., 5453 GREAT AMERICA PARKWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Manuel W Wisehart director 909 5TH AVE., UNIT 2101, SEATTLE WA 98164
S Marce Fuller director MIRANT CORPORATION, 1155 PERIMETER CENTER WEST, ATLANTA GA 30338
Thomas E Wheeler director 1250 CONNECTICUT AVE NW, CELLULAR TELECOMMUNICATIONS& INTERNET, WASHINGTON DC 20036
Barbara Dondiego officer: SVP Chief Marketing Officer 1375 PEACHTREE STREET ATLANTA GA 30309
Nathaniel A Davis director 1500 ECKINGTON PLACE NE, WASHINGTON DC 20002
Terrell B Jones director

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