EMCORE (EMCORE) Predictability Rank

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What is EMCORE Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

EMCORE Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

EMCORE Predictability Rank Related Terms

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EMCORE (EMCORE) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » EMCORE Corp (NAS:EMKR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ER2N:Germany ER2N:Germany

Address

2015 W. Chestnut Street, Alhambra, CA, USA, 91803

Website

https://www.emcore.com

EMCORE Corp is a provider of sensors and navigation systems for the aerospace and defense market. The company operates in one reporting segment, Inertial Navigation, whose product technology categories include: (a) FOG, (b) QMEMS, (c) RLG, in each case which serve the aerospace and defense market. The company operates geographically in United States and Canada, which is the key revenue generator; Asia; Europe; and Other.

Executives

Awm Investment Company, Inc.	10 percent owner	527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022
Rex S Jackson	director	C/O SYMYX TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 3100 CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SANTA CLARA CA 95051
Jeffrey Rittichier	officer: Chief Executive Officer	2015 CHESTNUT ST, ALHAMBRA CA 91803
Stephen L Domenik	director	C/O SEVIN ROSEN FUNDS, 13455 NOEL RD #1670, DALLAS TX 75240
Noel Heiks	director	C/O EMCORE CORPORATION, 2015 CHESTNUT ST., ALHAMBRA CA 91803
Thomas P. Minichiello	officer: Chief Financial Officer	750 N. COMMONS DRIVE, AURORA IL 60504
Bruce Grooms	director	C/O EMCORE CORPORATION, 2015 CHESTNUT ST., ALHAMBRA CA 91803
Mark A Gordon	officer: Intrm Princ Fin and Acc Offcr	2015 CHESTNUT STREET, ALHAMBRA CA 91803
Iain Black	officer: SVP, Operations	2015 CHESTNUT STREET, ALHAMBRA CA 91803
David Gregory Wojciechowski	officer: Vice President, Sales	2015 CHESTNUT STREET, ALHAMBRA CA 91803
Jikun Kim	officer: Chief Financial Officer	181 W. HUNTINGTON DRIVE, SUITE 202, MONROVIA CA 91016
Albert Lu	officer: Sr. V.P. of Engineering	2015 CHESTNUT STREET, ALHAMBRA CA 91803
Coringrato Edward J Jr.	director	301 1ST STREET, SW, SUITE 200, ROANOKE VA 24011
Mark Weinswig	officer: Chief Financial Officer	EMCORE CORP, 10420 RESEARCH ROAD, SE, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87123
Steven R Becker	director, other: See Remarks	5525 NAKOMA DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75209