Enzon Pharmaceuticals (Enzon Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Enzon Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Enzon Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Enzon Pharmaceuticals (Enzon Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Enzon Pharmaceuticals Inc (OTCPK:ENZN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EZ1:Germany

Address

20 Commerce Drive, Suite 135, Cranford, NJ, USA, 07016

Website

http://www.enzon.com

Enzon Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. It engages in the provision of licensing arrangements related to sales of drug products that utilize its proprietary technology. The company earns revenue in the form of royalties. Primary source of royalty revenues derived from the sales of PegIntron, which is marketed by Merck.

Executives

Randolph C Read	director	C/O NEW YORK REIT, INC., 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jaffrey Adam Firestone	director	C/O CVR ENERGY, INC., 2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Family Fund Couchman	other: See Footnote 1	630 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2260, NEW YORK NY 10020
Jordan Bleznick	director	C/O ENZON PHANNACEUTICALS, INC., 120 COMMERCE DRIVE (SUITE 135), CRANFORD NJ 07016
Pearce Michael Cooper	other: See explanation of responses	213 RHODODENDRON DRIVE, CHAPEL HILL NC 27517
Harper Asset Management Llc	other: See explanation of responses	2945 S CENTER GREEN CT, G215, BOULDER CO 80301
Brian James Harper	other: See explanation of responses	6680 GUNPARK DRIVE, SUITE 202B, BOULDER CO 80301
Myrexis, Inc.	other: See Footnote 1	600 FIFTH AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020
Xstelos Corp.	other: See Footnote 1	630 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2260, NEW YORK NY 10020
Jonathan Couchman	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	630 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2260, NEW YORK NY 10020
Carl C Icahn	10 percent owner	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH-1, SUNNY ISLES BEACH FL 33160
Richard L Feinstein	officer: VP-Finance and PFO
Jonathan Christodoro	director	C/O ICAHN ENTERPRISES L.P., 16690 COLLINS AVE., PH, SUNNY ISLES FL 33160
Kostas D Odysseas	director	660 STEAMBOAT ROAD, 3RD FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jennifer Isacoff Mcnealey	director	C/O CODEX DNA, INC., 9535 WAPLES STREET, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO Z4 92121