Equus Total Return (Equus Total Return) Predictability Rank

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What is Equus Total Return Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Equus Total Return Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Equus Total Return (Equus Total Return) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Equus Total Return Inc (NYSE:EQS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

700 Louisiana Street, 48th Floor, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

http://www.equuscap.com

Equus Total Return Inc is a United States-based closed-end management investment company providing financial solutions for privately-owned middle market and small capitalization companies. Its investment objective is to seek the highest total return, consisting of capital appreciation and current income. It focuses to provide long-term capital gains by investing in the debt and equity securities of small and middle-market capitalization companies that are generally not publicly traded at the time of its investment. Its investment operations include investment selection, due diligence, structuring investments, and providing management assistance and monitoring of investments.

Executives

Robert L Knauss	director	5151 SAN FELIPE, SUITE 1661, HOUSTON TX 77056
Pallieres Bertrand Des	director	EQUUS TOTAL RETURN, INC., 8 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 930, HOUSTON TX 77046
Michael T Tokarz	10 percent owner	287 BOWMAN AVENUE, SUITE 331, PURCHASE NY 10577
Mvc Capital, Inc.	10 percent owner	RIVERVIEW AT PURCHASE, 287 BOWMAN AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, PURCHASE NY 10577
Tokarz Group Advisers Llc	10 percent owner	RIVERVIEW PLAZA, 287 BOWMAN AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, PURCHASE NY 10577
John A. Hardy	director	C/O EQUUS TOTAL RETURN, INC., 8 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 930, HOUSTON TX 77046
Richard F Bergner	director	2727 ALLEN PARKWAY, 13TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77019
Fraser Atkinson	director	C/O EQUUS TOTAL RETURN, INC., 8 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 930, HOUSTON TX 77046
Henry W Hankinson	director	2727 ALLEN PARKWAY, 13TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77019
Kenneth I Denos	officer: Executive VP and Secretary	10757 SOUTH RIVER FRONT PARKWAY, SUITE 125, SOUTH JORDAN UT 84095
Mobiquity Investments Ltd	director	19105 36TH AVENUE WEST, SUITE 213, LYNNWOOD WA 98036
Alessandro Benedetti	director	C/O EQUUS TOTAL RETURN, INC., 8 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 930, HOUSTON TX 77046
Tiel Trust Fbo Paula T. Douglass	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 130197, HOUSTON TX 77219
Tiel Trust Fbo Sam P. Douglass	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 130197, HOUSTON TX 77219
Douglass Trust Iv - Fbo S. Preston Douglass	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 130197, HOUSTON TX 77219