Establishment Labs Holdings (Establishment Labs Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Establishment Labs Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Establishment Labs Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Establishment Labs Holdings (Establishment Labs Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Establishment Labs Holdings Inc (NAS:ESTA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3E0:Germany

Address

Coyol Free Zone, Building B15 and 25, Alajuela, CRI

Website

https://establishmentlabs.com

Establishment Labs Holdings Inc is a medical technology company engaged in offering medical devices and aesthetic products. It is involved in designing, manufacturing, and marketing silicone-filled breast and body shaping implants. The company markets its products under Motiva implants Brand. It distributes its products to medical distributors; and physicians, hospitals, and clinics in the form of direct sales. Its geographical segments are Europe, Latin America, Asia-Pacific/Middle East, and Others.

Executives

Nicholas Sheridan Lewin	director, 10 percent owner	3 WEST 57TH ST., 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Raj Denhoy	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MOTIVA USA, LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958
Dennis E Condon	director	811 ALSTON RD, SANTA BARBARA CA 93108
Leslie Gillin	director	C/O MOTIVA USA, LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958
Paul D. Rodio	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O MOTIVA USA LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958
Samuel Ross Mansbach	other: GC & Chief Compliance Officer	C/O MOTIVA USA LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958
Jw Asset Management, Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote(1)	1051 N VENETIAN DRIVE, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Bryan Slotkin	director	C/O MOTIVA USA,.LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958
Ann Custin	director	C/O MOTIVA USA, LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958
Edward J Schutter	director	C/O FIRST HORIZON PHARMACEUTICAL CORP, 6195 SHILOH ROAD, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Lisa Gersh	director	C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Mezerville Roberto De	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O MOTIVA USA LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958
Renee Gaeta	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MOTIVA USA LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958
Pratip Dastidar	officer: Head of Global Operations	150 PEABODY PLACE, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Santos Salvador Dada	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O MOTIVA USA LLC, 16192 COASTAL HIGHWAY, LEWES DE 19958