ETRADE Financial (ETRADE Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is E*TRADE Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

E*TRADE Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ETRADE Financial (ETRADE Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » E*TRADE Financial Corp (NAS:ETFC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

671 North Glebe Road, Ballston Tower, Arlington, VA, USA, 22203

Website

https://us.etrade.com

E-Trade is one of the largest direct-to-investor platforms in the United States and housed over $500 billion of invested assets and client cash at the end of 2019. The company generates interest income on noninvested cash on its platform, trading commissions, service charges including payment for order flow, and fees from stock plan administration. Almost all the company's revenue is generated within the U.S.

Executives

Richard J Carbone	director	C/O E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP., 11 TIMES SQUARE, 32ND FLOOR 10036-9992, NEWARK NJ 10036-9992
Joshua Weinreich	director	C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DEUTSCHE BANK, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Chad E. Turner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11 TIMES SQUARE, 32ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Alice Milligan	officer: EVP, Chief Customer Officer	11 TIMES SQUARE 32ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Lori Sher	officer: EVP, General Counsel	11 TIMES SQUARE 32ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Michael Jos. Murphy	officer: Sr. MD, Retail Brokerage	11 TIMES SQUARE, 32ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036
Dirk W Wyckoff	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	671 N GLEBE ROAD ARLINGTON VA 22203
Donna L Weaver	director	C/O E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP. 11 TIMES SQUARE, 32ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036-9992
Jaime Wallace Ellertson	director	C/O SI CORP, 3500 LENOX ROAD SUITE 200, ATLANTA GA 30326
Rodger A Lawson	director	C/O E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP., 11 TIMES SQUARE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036-9992
Shelley B Leibowitz	director	C/O MORGAN STANLEY, 1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Rebecca Saeger	director	C/O E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP., 11 TIMES SQUARE, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036-9992
Michael John Curcio	officer: EVP, Institutional	C/O E*TRADE FINANCIAL CORP. 11 TIMES SQUARE, 32ND FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10036-9992
James Lam	director	C/O DAVIS POLK & WARDWELL LLP 450 LEXINGTON AVE NEW YORK NY 10017
Matthew Minetola	officer: Chief Information Officer	300 GALLERIA PARKWAY, NW ATLANTA GA 30339