What is EyePoint Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
EyePoint Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
EyePoint Pharmaceuticals (EyePoint Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
480 Pleasant Street, Suite B300, Watertown, MA, USA, 02472
EyePoint Pharmaceuticals Inc is a pharmaceutical company. It is engaged in developing and commercializing ophthalmic products for the treatment of eye diseases. The company has developed FDA-approved sustained-release treatments in ophthalmology. Its pre-clinical development program is focused on using its core Durasert and Verisome technology platforms to deliver drugs to treat wet age-related macular degeneration, glaucoma, osteoarthritis, and other diseases. Geographically, the firm has operational footprints in the U.S., China, and the UK. It generates a majority of its revenue from the U.S.
Executives
| Ye Liu |
director |
ROOM 502-I, WANT WANT PLAZA, NO. 211 SHIMEN YI ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 200041 |
| Dario A. Paggiarino |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
4025 SORRENTO VALLEY BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Michael Craig Pine |
officer: Chief Corp Dev.&Strat. Officer |
C/O EYEPOINT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 480 PLEASANT STREET, SUITE A-210, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| Nancy Lurker |
director, officer: President and CEO |
PDI, INC., 1 ROUTE 17 SOUTH, SADDLE RIVER NJ 07458 |
| Stuart Duty |
director |
22722 29TH DR SE, SUITE 100, BOTHELL WA 98021 |
| Ew Healthcare Partners, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
21 WATERWAY AVENUE, SUITE 225, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Karen L. Zaderej |
director |
AXOGEN INC., 13859 PROGRESS BLVD, SUITE 100, ALACHUA FL 32615 |
| Anthony P Adamis |
director |
3 TIMES SQUARE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Therapeutics Ocumension |
10 percent owner |
56F, ONE MUSEUM PLACE, 669 XIN ZHA ROAD, JING'AN DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 200041 |
| George Elston |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
124 CHATHAM STREET, CHATHAM NJ 07928 |
| Wendy F Dicicco |
director |
|
| David Scott Jones |
officer: SVP & Chief Commercial Officer |
C/O EYEPOINT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.,, 480 PLEASANT STREET, SUITE A210, WATERTOWN MA 02472 |
| John B. Landis |
director |
1700 KENT AVENUE, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 46906 |
| Jay S. Duker |
director |
C/O ELEVEN BIOTHERAPEUTICS, 215 1ST ST. #400, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Douglas Evan Godshall |
director |
SUITE 4 LEVEL 46 2 PARK STREET, SIDNEY C3 2000 |
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