Freedom Acquisition I (Freedom Acquisition I) Predictability Rank

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What is Freedom Acquisition I Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Freedom Acquisition I Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Freedom Acquisition I (Freedom Acquisition I) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Freedom Acquisition I Corp (NYSE:FACT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

14 Wall Street, 20th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10005

Website

https://www.freedomac1.com

Freedom Acquisition I Corp is a blank check company.

Executives

David John Anderson	director, officer: CMO; EVP Strategic Partnership	C/O COMPLETE SOLARIA, INC., 3000 EXECUTIVE PARKWAY, SUITE 504, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Vikas Desai	officer: President; GM Business Units	C/O COMPLETE SOLARIA, INC., 3000 EXECUTIVE PARKWAY, SUITE 504, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Thurman J Rodgers	director, 10 percent owner	535 EASTVIEW WAY, WOODSIDE CA 94062
William James Anderson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O COMPLETE SOLARIA, INC., 3000 EXECUTIVE PARKWAY, SUITE 504, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Arnaud Lepert	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O COMPLETE SOLARIA, INC., 3000 EXECUTIVE PARKWAY, SUITE 504, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Devin Whatley	director	C/O COMPLETE SOLARIA, INC., 3000 EXECUTIVE PARKWAY, SUITE 504, SAN RAMON CA 94583
Brian Wuebbels	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MEMC ELECTRONIC MATERIALS, INC., 501 PEARL DRIVE, ST. PETERS MO 63376
Ronald J Pasek	director	101 INNOVATION DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Antonio R Alvarez	director	3901 N. FIRST ST., SAN JOSE CA 95134
Edward Qiang Zeng	director	14 WALL STREET, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 100005
Nell Cady-kruse	director	C/O VARAGON CAPITAL CORPORATION, 299 PARK AVENUE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171
David Poritz	director	14 WALL STREET, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Adam Gishen	officer: Chief Executive Officer	14 WALL STREET, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Freedom Acquisition I Llc	10 percent owner	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Tidjane Thiam	director	C/O TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY FOX, INC., NEW YORK NY 10036