What is FuelCell Energy Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
FuelCell Energy Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
FuelCell Energy (FuelCell Energy) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3 Great Pasture Road, Danbury, CT, USA, 06810
FuelCell Energy Inc is a fuel-cell power company. FuelCell designs manufactures, sells, installs, operates, and services fuel cell products and electrolysis platforms that decarbonize power and produce hydrogen. It serves various industries such as Industrial, Wastewater treatment, Commercial and Hospitality, Data centers and Communications, Education and Healthcare, and others. Geographically, the company generates a majority of its revenue from the United States followed by South Korea.
Executives
| Jason Few |
director, officer: CEO |
2201 COLQUITT STREET, HOUSTON TX 77098 |
| Michael S. Bishop |
officer: EVP, TREASURER & CFO |
FUELCELL ENERGY, INC., 3 GREAT PASTURE ROAD, DANBURY CT 06813-1305 |
| Anthony Leo |
officer: EVP & Chief Technology Officer |
C/O FUELCELL ENERGY, INC., 3 GREAT PASTURE ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810 |
| Michael Lisowski |
officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer |
C/O FUELCELL ENERGY, INC., 3 GREAT PASTURE ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810 |
| Althann Natica Von |
director |
TWO NORTH NINTH STREET, ALLENTOWN PA 18101 |
| Matthew F Hilzinger |
director |
|
| James Herbert England |
director |
15687 VILLORESI WAY, NAPLES FL 34110 |
| Wilson Donna Sims |
director |
FUELCELL ENERGY, INC., 3 GREAT PASTURE ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810 |
| Betsy B Bingham |
director |
3 GREAT PASTURE ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810 |
| Cynthia L Hansen |
director |
500 CONSUMERS ROAD, NORTH YORK A6 M2J 1P8 |
| Mark Feasel |
officer: EVP & Ch. Commercial Officer |
3 GREAT PASTURE ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810 |
| Joshua Dolger |
officer: Interim Gen Counsel & Corp Sec |
FUELCELL ENERGY, INC., 3 GREAT PASTURE ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810 |
| John Christopher Groobey |
director |
38 TROLLHAVEN LANE, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401 |
| Jennifer D Arasimowicz |
officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel, CAO, Secy |
FUELCELL ENERGY, INC., 3 GREAT PASTURE ROAD, DANBURY CT 06810 |
| John A Rolls |
director |
|
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