Frequency Electronics (Frequency Electronics) Predictability Rank

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What is Frequency Electronics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Frequency Electronics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Frequency Electronics (Frequency Electronics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Frequency Electronics Inc (NAS:FEIM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

98K:Germany

Address

55 Charles Lindbergh Boulevard, Mitchel Field, NY, USA, 11553

Website

https://www.frequencyelectronics.com

Frequency Electronics Inc is engaged in the design, development, and manufacture of high-precision timing, and frequency control products for space, air, sea, and terrestrial applications. The company has FEI-NY and FEI-Zyfer reportable segments. It derives the majority of its revenues from the FEI-NY segment. FEI-NY segment operations consist principally of precision time and frequency control products used in three principal markets namely communication satellites (both commercial and U.S. Government-funded); terrestrial cellular telephone or other ground-based telecommunication stations; and other components and systems for the U.S. military.

Executives

Russell M Sarachek	director	4718 FOXHALL CRESCENTS NW, WASHINGTON DC 20007
Edenbrook Long Only Value Fund, Lp	director, 10 percent owner	EDENBROOK CAPITAL, LLC, 116 RADIO CIRCLE, SUITE 202, MT. KISCO NY 10549
Steven E Strang	officer: President, FEI-Zyfer, Inc.	C/O FREQUENCY ELECTRONICS, INC., 55 CHARLES LINDBERGH BLVD, MITCHEL FIELD NY 11553
Thomas Mcclelland	officer: Vice President, Comml Products	C/O FREQUENCY ELECTRONICS INC, 55 CHARLES LINDBERGH BLVD, MITCHEL FIELD NY 11553
Stanton D Sloane	director	COMTECH TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORP., 68 SOUTH SERVICE RD., SUITE 230, MELVILLE NY 11747
John Patrick Caulfield	officer: VP of Manufacturing	C/O FREQUENCY ELECTRONICS, 55 CHARLES LINDBERGH BLVD., MITCHEL FIELD NY 11533
Edenbrook Capital, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	116 RADIO CIRCLE, SUITE 202, MT. KISCO NY 10549
Martin B Bloch	director, officer: President	FREQUENCY ELECTRONICS INC, 55 CHARLES LINDBERGH BLVD, MITCHEL FIELD NY 11553
Robert Schwartz	director	11552 PROSPEROUS DRIVE, ODESSA FL 33556
Jonathan Brolin	director, 10 percent owner	2 DEPOT PLAZA, 4TH FLOOR, BEDFORD HILLS NY 10507
Privet Fund Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	3280 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 2670, Atlanta GA 30305
Oleandro Mancini	officer: Vice President, Bus. Develop	C/O FREQUENCY ELECTRONICS INC, 55 CHARLES LINDBERGH BLVD, MITCHEL FIELD NY 11553
Lance W Lord	director	1110 TRUMPETERS COURT, MONUMENT CO 80132
Steven Lawrence Bernstein	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FREQUENCY ELECTRONICS INC., 55 CHARLES LINDBERGH BLVD., MITCHEL FIELD NY 11553
Ryan Levenson	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	2396 DELLWOOD DRIVE, ATLANTA GA 30305