Farmland Partners (Farmland Partners) Predictability Rank

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What is Farmland Partners Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Farmland Partners Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Farmland Partners Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Farmland Partners (Farmland Partners) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Farmland Partners Inc (NYSE:FPI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

LAND NLCP AFCG CORR PW UNIT OUT HASI AMT EQIX CCI DLR SBAC WY IRM GLPI LAMR RYN PCH EPR

Traded in Other Exchanges

0FA:Germany

Address

4600 South Syracuse Street, Suite 1450, Denver, CO, USA, 80237

Website

http://www.farmlandpartners.com

Farmland Partners Inc owns and seeks to acquire high-quality farmland throughout North America. The company is an internally managed real estate company and owns and contracts of farmland and storage facilities located across the United States. Its properties are farmed by over 100 tenants growing more than 26 commercial crops. Farmland Partners generates its revenues through the rent it receives from its tenants.

Executives

Paul A Pittman	director, officer: President and CEO	4910 BIRCH ST., SUITE 102, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Jennifer S Grafton	director	9540 SOUTH MAROON CIRCLE, SUITE 200, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Murray R Wise	director	2407 S NEIL PO BOX 3009, CHAMPAIGN IL 61826
Luca Fabbri	officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer	C/O FARMLAND PARTNERS INC., 8670 WOLFF COURT, SUITE 240, WESTMINSTER CO 80031
Christine M. Garrison	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O FARMLAND PARTNERS INC., 4600 S. SYRACUSE STREET, SUITE 1450, DENVER CO 80237
John A Good	director	C/O JERNIGAN CAPITAL, INC., 1395 BRICKELL AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33131
Danny D. Moore	director	C/O FARMLAND PARTNERS INC., 4600 S. SYRACUSE STREET, SUITE 1450, DENVER CO 80237
James Gilligan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FARMLAND PARTNERS INC., 4600 S. SYRACUSE STREET, SUITE 1450, DENVER CO 80237
Thomas Heneghan	director	C/O MANUFACTURED HOME COMMUNITIES INC, 2 N RIVER PLAZA #800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Toby Orourke	director	FARMLAND PARTNERS INC., 4600 S. SYRACUSE STREET, SUITE 1450, DENVER CO 80237
Erica Borenstein	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O FARMLAND PARTNERS INC., 8670 WOLFF COURT, SUITE 240, WESTMINSTER CO 80031
Chris A Downey	director	C/O FARMLAND PARTNERS INC., : 8670 WOLFF COURT, SUITE 240, WESTMINSTER CO 80031
Jay Bartels	director	C/O FARMLAND PARTNERS INC., 8670 WOLFF COURT, SUITE 240, WESTMINSTER CO 80031
Joseph W Glauber	director	FARMLAND PARTNERS INC., 8670 WOLFF COURT, SUITE 240, WESTMINSTER CO 80031
Dennie Dixon Boardman	director	C/O OPTIMA FUND MANAGEMENT LLC, 10 EAST 53RD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022