What is Franchise Group Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Franchise Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Franchise Group (Franchise Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
109 Innovation Court, Suite J, Delaware, OH, USA, 43015
Franchise Group Inc is a personal services company that provides retail federal and state income tax preparation services and related tax settlement products. The vast majority of these offices operate in the United States under the Liberty Tax Service and SiempreTax+ brand names. Liberty Tax also provides online do-it-yourself tax programs within the U.S. The sale of financial products and tax preparation service fees also contribute to sizable percentages of the company's total income. Liberty Tax also operates a smaller portfolio of wholly-owned company offices. The company's reportable segments are Vitamin Shoppe, Pet Supplies Plus, Badcock, American Freight, Buddy's and Sylvan.
Executives
| Daniel Meitner Ondeck |
10 percent owner |
13301 BEALL CREEK CT., POTOMAC MD 20854 |
| Richard W Riley |
10 percent owner |
B RILEY AND CO, 11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD STE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025 |
| Bryant R Riley |
director, 10 percent owner |
C/O B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC., 21255 BURBANK BLVD, SUITE 400, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367 |
| Kelleher Thomas J /adv |
10 percent owner |
C/O B. RILEY FINANCIAL, INC., 21255 BURBANK BLVD, SUITE 400, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367 |
| Randall E Paulson |
10 percent owner |
|
| Nanhi Singh |
director |
109 INNOVATION COURT, SUITE J, DELAWARE OH 43015 |
| Gary S Rich |
director |
C/O THE READER'S DIGEST ASSOCIATION, READER'S DIGEST ROAD, PLEASANTVILLE NY 10570 |
| Brian Randall Kahn |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
5506 WORSHAM COURT, WINDERMERE FL 34786 |
| Patrick A Cozza |
director |
C/O HSBC INSURANCE, 545 WASHINGTON BLVD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310 |
| Lee A. Wright |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
C/O DIAMOND CASTLE HOLDINGS, LLC, 280 PARK AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, EAST TOWER, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Andrew M Laurence |
director |
C/O API TECHNOLOGIES CORP., ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE SUITE 4400, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Cynthia S Dubin |
director |
1200 E. MARKET STREET, SUITE 650, AKRON OH 44305 |
| Lisa M Fairfax |
director |
2387 LIBERTY WAY, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23456 |
| Vintage Capital Management Llc |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
4705 S APOPKA VINELAND ROAD SUITE 210, ORLANDO FL 32819 |
| B. Riley Financial, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
11100 SANTA MONICA BLVD, SUITE 800, LOS ANGELES CA 90025 |
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