What is F45 Training Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
F45 Training Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
F45 Training Holdings (F45 Training Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3601 South Congress Avenue, Building E, Austin, TX, USA, 78704
F45 Training Holdings Inc is a fitness franchisor in the United States. The company is focused on creating a fitness training and lifestyle brand. The group offers consumers functional 45-minute workouts that are effective, fun, and community-driven.
Executives
| Richard Alan Monje |
director |
111 WEST 33RD STREET, SUITE 1910, NEW YORK NY 10120 |
| Ryan Mayes |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
3601 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, BUILDING E, AUSTIN TX 78704 |
| Anthony Pasqua |
director |
225 LIBERTY STREET, SUITE 4210, NEW YORK NY 10281 |
| James Feltman |
director |
3601 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, BUILDING E, AUSTIN TX 78704 |
| Thomas Dowd |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
300 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222 |
| Timothy J Bernlohr |
director |
90 EAST HALSEY RD., PARSIPPANY NJ 07054 |
| Raphael Wallander |
director |
3601 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, BUILDING E, AUSTIN TX 78704 |
| Lisa A Gavales |
director |
C/O EXPRESS PARENT LLC, ONE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230 |
| Robert L Madore |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Steven D Scheiwe |
director |
1741 EDGEFIELD LANE, ENCINITAS CA 92024 |
| Eugene I Davis |
director |
8540 GANDER CREEK DRIVE, MIAMISBURG OH 45342 |
| Kennedy Lewis Capital Partners Master Fund Ii Lp |
director, 10 percent owner |
111 WEST 33RD STREET, SUITE 1910, NEW YORK NY 10120 |
| Mark Wahlberg |
director |
C/O CORTINA BUSINESS MANAGEMENT, INC., PO BOX 610287, NEWTON MA 02461 |
| Vanessa Douglas |
director |
3601 SOUTH CONGRESS AVENUE, BUILDING E, AUSTIN TX 78704 |
| Luke Armstrong |
officer: Chief Revenue Officer |
801 BARTON SPRINGS RD., 9TH FLOOR, AUSTIN TX 78704 |
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