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Golden Entertainment (Golden Entertainment) Predictability Rank


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What is Golden Entertainment Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Golden Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Golden Entertainment Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Golden Entertainment (Golden Entertainment) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Golden Entertainment Inc (NAS:GDEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
PLYA MCRI BALY MSC FLL CNTY TBTC SLNA PENN MLCO LVS HKSE:01928 HKSE:00027 MGM WYNN SGX:G13 CZR MTN HKSE:02282 HKSE:01128
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6595 S Jones Boulevard, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89118
Website
https://www.goldenent.com
Golden Entertainment Inc is a us-based company that focuses on distributed gaming, casino, and resort operations. Its reportable segments are Nevada Casino Resorts, Nevada Locals Casinos, Maryland Casino Resort, and Distributed Gaming. It derives key revenue from the Nevada Casino Resorts and Distributed Gaming segments. Nevada Casino Resorts is comprised of destination casino resort properties offering a variety of food and beverage outlets, entertainment venues, and other amenities. Distributed Gaming segment is comprised of the operation of slot machines and amusement devices in non-casino locations across Nevada and Montana, with a limited number of slot machines in each location, as well as the operation of branded taverns.
Executives
Charles Protell officer: President and CFO 6595 S JONES BLVD, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Stephen A Arcana officer: EVP and COO 6595 S JONES BLVD, LAS VEGAS, NV, USA NV 89118
Andy H Chien director C/O MGM GROWTH PROPERTIES LLC, 6385 S. RAINBOW BLVD., SUITE 500, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Blake L Sartini director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO 6595 S JONES BLVD, LAS VEGAS, NV, USA NV 89118
Terrence Wright director 6595 S JONES BLVD, LAS VEGAS, NV, USA NV 89118
Sartini Blake L Ii officer: SVP of Distributed Gaming C/O GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 6595 S JONES BLVD., LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Marnell Anthony A. Iii director C/O GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 6595 S JONES BLVD, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Ann D. Dozier director C/O GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 6595 S JONES BLVD, LAS VEGAS, NV, USA NV 89118
Robert L Miodunski director 6601 S BERMUDA RD, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Lyle Berman director 10275 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, MINNETONKA MN 55305
Mark A Lipparelli director 6595 S JONES BLVD, LAS VEGAS, NV, USA NV 89118
Thomas Edwin Haas officer: SVP of Accounting C/O GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 6595 S JONES BLVD, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Sean T Higgins officer: Executive VP and CLO C/O GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 6595 S JONES BLVD., LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Delise F Sartini 10 percent owner 2411 WEST SAHARA AVENUE, LAS VEGAS NV 89102
Blake L. Sartini & Delise F. Sartini Family Trust 10 percent owner 6595 S JONES BLVD, LAS VEGAS NV 89118