Great Elm Capital (Great Elm Capital) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2010. Start your Free Trial

What is Great Elm Capital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Great Elm Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Great Elm Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Great Elm Capital's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Great Elm Capital (Great Elm Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Great Elm Capital Corp (NAS:GECC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

800 South Street, Suite 230, Waltham, MA, USA, 02453

Website

http://www.greatelmcc.com

Great Elm Capital Corp is an externally managed, non-diversified closed-end management investment company. The company seeks to generate current income and capital appreciation through debt and equity investments, including investments in specialty finance businesses. It invests in senior secured and senior unsecured debt instruments, as well as in junior loans and mezzanine debt of middle-market companies and small businesses. The company generates revenue from interest on the debt investments that it holds.

Executives

Great Elm Group, Inc.	10 percent owner	800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453
Richard M Cohen	director	C/O CARNEGIE INTERNATIONAL CORP, 11350 MCCORMICK ROAD EXECUTIVE PLAZA #3, HUNT VALLEY MD 21031
Mark Kuperschmid	director	MAST CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 51ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Matthew D Kaplan	officer: CEO and President	800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453
Northern Right Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: Member of 13D 10% Group	9 OLD KINGS HWY. S., 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Nrc Partners I, Lp	10 percent owner	9 OLD KINGS HIGHWAY SOUTH, 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Bc Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	500 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75201
Northern Right Capital (qp), L.p.	10 percent owner	9 OLD KINGS HWY. S., 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Matthew A Drapkin	director	10 CORBIN DRIVE, 3RD FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Chad Perry	director	C/O TANGER FACTORY OUTLET CENTERS, INC., 3200 NORTHLINE AVENUE, SUITE 360, GREENSBORO NC 27408
Lenders Funding Llc /california	10 percent owner	523 A AVENUE, CORONADO CA 92118
Robert A Zadek	10 percent owner	523 A AVENUE, CORONADO CA 92118
Erik A Falk	director	C/O KKR ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, 555 CALIFORNIA STREET, 50TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Adam M Kleinman	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453
Michael C Speller	director	800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453