Graham Holdings Co (Graham Holdings Co) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is Graham Holdings Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Graham Holdings Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Graham Holdings Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Graham Holdings Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Graham Holdings Co (Graham Holdings Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Graham Holdings Co (NYSE:GHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WPOB:Germany

Address

1300 North 17th Street, 17th Floor, Arlington, VA, USA, 22209

Website

https://www.ghco.com

Graham Holdings Co. is a diversified education and media company made up of subsidiaries. Firm operations include educational services; television broadcasting; online, print, and local news; home health and hospice care; and manufacturing. The Company segments into the following seven reportable segments: Kaplan International, Higher Education, Supplemental Education, Television Broadcasting, Manufacturing, Healthcare, and Automotive. The majority of revenue comes from the Kaplan International segment, which includes higher education, test preparation, language instruction, and professional training. A large portion of company revenue also comes from the television broadcasting segment through advertising.

Executives

Thomas Sinnickson Gayner	director	C/O MARKEL CORP, 4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Tony Allen	director	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST., SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Timothy J O'shaughnessy	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS COMPANY, 1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Marcel A. Snyman	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST., SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Danielle Y. Conley	director	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST., SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Christopher C Davis	director	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS COMPANY, 1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Sandra M. Stonesifer	officer: VP, Chief HR Officer	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST., SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Jack A. Markell	director	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST., SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Andrew Stephen Rosen	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Lee C Bollinger	director	535 WEST 116TH STREET, LOW LIBRARY, ROOM 202, NEW YORK NY 10027
Katharine Weymouth	director	1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Anne M Mulcahy	director	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Jacob Maas,	officer: Sr. VP-Planning and Dev.	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS COMPANY, 1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Denise M Demeter	officer: VP and Chief HR Officer	1300 17TH STREET NORTH, SUITE 1700, ROSSLYN VA 22209
Donald Graham	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and COB	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS COMPANY, 1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209