Global Industrial Co (Global Industrial Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Global Industrial Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Industrial Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Global Industrial Co (Global Industrial Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » Global Industrial Co (NYSE:GIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GML0:Germany

Address

11 Harbor Park Drive, Port Washington, NY, USA, 11050

Website

https://investors.globalindustrial.com

Global Industrial Co is a value-added industrial distributor. It distributes a wide range of industrial and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products to customers across North America, including storage and shelving, safety and security, carts and trucks, HVAC and fans, furniture and decor, material handling, janitorial and facility maintenance, workbenches and shop desks, tools and instruments, plumbing and pumps, office and school supplies, packaging and shipping, lighting and electrical, food service and retail, medical and laboratory, motors and power transmission, building supplies, machining, fasteners and hardware, vehicle maintenance, and raw materials.

Executives

Thomas Axmacher	officer: VP-Controller (CAO)	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Thomas Suozzi	director	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Robert Leeds 2008 Family Trust	10 percent owner	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Bruce Leeds	director, officer: V. Chmn & Pres of Int. Op.	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Richard Leeds	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O SYSTEMAX INC., 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Robert Leeds	director, officer: V. Chmn & Pres. of Dom. Op.	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Barry Litwin	director	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Storch Adina	officer: SVP & General Counsel	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Donna Fielding	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Christopher Longhito	officer: SVP, Operations	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Alex Tomey	officer: SVP & Chief Merchandising OFC	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Manoj Shetty	officer: SVP & Chief Info Officer	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Robert Dooley	officer: Sr. Vice President	C/O SYSTEMAX INC., 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Klaus Werner	officer: SVP & Chief Marketing Officer	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050
Claudia Hughes	officer: SVP & Chief Sales Officer	C/O GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL COMPANY, 11 HARBOR PARK DRIVE, PORT WASHINGTON NY 11050