Gulfport Energy (Gulfport Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Gulfport Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gulfport Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Gulfport Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Gulfport Energy (Gulfport Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Gulfport Energy Corp (NYSE:GPOR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

G2U0:Germany

Address

713 Market Drive, Oklahoma City, OK, USA, 73114

Website

https://www.gulfportenergy.com

Gulfport Energy Corp is an independent exploration and development company. It operates through Utica Shale and Scoop properties. The Utica Shale is located in the Appalachian Basin of the United States and Canada. The Scoop (South Central Oklahoma Oil Province) play of Oklahoma is located in the southeast portion of the prolific Anadarko Basin.

Executives

Jason Joseph Martinez	director	1 TOKENEKE TRAIL, HOUSTON TX 77024
Silver Point Capital L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	TWO GREENWICH PLAZA, SUITE 1, GREENWICH CT 06830
Patrick K. Craine	officer: General Counsel and Corp. Sec.	713 MARKET DRIVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73114
Michael Sluiter	officer: SVP of Reservoir Engineering	713 MARKET DRIVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73114
Matthew Willrath	officer: VP & CAO	713 MARKET DRIVE, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73114
Jean Marie Powers	director	2507 LOCKE LANE, HOUSTON TX 77019
Robert J O'shea	10 percent owner	C/O SILVER POINT CAPITAL L.P., TWO GREENWICH PLAZA, FIRST FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Edward A Mule	10 percent owner	C/O SILVER POINT CAPITAL L.P., TWO GREENWICH PLAZA, FIRST FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Mary Shafer-malicki	director	757 N. ELDRIDGE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77079
Michael L Hodges	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O GULFPORT ENERGY CORP, 713 MARKET DR, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73114
Matthew Rucker	officer: SVP, Operations	713 MARKET DR, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73114
John K. Reinhart	director, officer: President & CEO	713 MARKET DR, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73114
Robert John Moses	officer: SVP, Operations & Drilling	3001 QUAIL SPRINGS PARKWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134
David A Reganato	director	TWO GREENWICH PLAZA, GREENWICH CT 06830
William J Buese	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3001 QUAIL SPRINGS PKWY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73134