Gorman-Rupp Co (Gorman-Rupp Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Gorman-Rupp Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gorman-Rupp Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gorman-Rupp Co (Gorman-Rupp Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Gorman-Rupp Co (NYSE:GRC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GO4:Germany

Address

600 South Airport Road, Mansfield, OH, USA, 44903

Website

https://www.gormanrupp.com

Gorman-Rupp Co designs, manufactures and globally sells pumps & pump systems for use in water, wastewater, construction, dewatering, industrial, petroleum, original equipment, agriculture, fire protection, heating, ventilating & air conditioning, military, and other liquid-handling applications. It operates in one business segment, the manufacture & sale of pumps and pump systems, and generates revenue from the same. Geographically, it generates the majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

Charmaine R Riggins	director	6524 RESERVE PINE DRIVE, CARY NC 27519
Kenneth R Reynolds	director	1424 GREENBRIER DRIVE, MT VERNON OH 43050
Scott A King	officer: Vice President	600 SOUTH AIRPORT ROAD, MANSFIELD OH 44903
M Ann Harlan	director
Jeffrey S Gorman	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O GORMAN RUPP CO, POST OFFICE BOX 1218, MANSFIELD OH 44901
Christopher H Lake	director	C/O GORMAN RUPP CO, PO BOX 1217, MANSFIELD OH 44901
D Patrick Wischmeier	officer: VP, Information Technology	600 SOUTH AIRPORT ROAD, MANSFIELD OH 44903
Angela M Morehead	officer: Treasurer and Asst. Secretary	600 SOUTH AIRPORT ROAD, MANSFIELD OH 44903
Vincent K Petrella	director
Donald H Bullock	director
Sonja K Mcclelland	director	ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46268
Ronald D Pittenger	officer: Assistant Treasurer	THE GORMAN-RUPP COMPANY, 305 BOWMAN STREET, MANSFIELD OH 44903
Barbara A Woodman	officer: VP, Human Resources	600 SOUTH AIRPORT ROAD, MANSFIELD OH 44903
James Kerr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
W Wayne Walston	director	C/O GORMAN RUPP CO, PO BOX 1217, MANSFIELD OH 44901