Haynes International (Haynes International) Predictability Rank

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What is Haynes International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Haynes International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Haynes International (Haynes International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Haynes International Inc (NAS:HAYN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HYVN:Germany

Address

1020 West Park Avenue, Kokomo, IN, USA, 46904-9013

Website

https://www.haynesintl.com

Haynes International Inc is a producer of high-performance nickel and cobalt-based alloys. The company is focused on developing, manufacturing, marketing, and distributing technology and high-performance alloys. The company operates in a single segment: the design, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of technologically advanced, high-performance alloys for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine, chemical processing, and other industries Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States and also has a presence in Europe, China, and other countries.

Executives

Lee M Pike	officer: VP - Research and Technology	1020 WEST PARK AVENUE, KOKOMO IN 46904
Susan Perry	officer: VP, HUMAN RESOURCES	1020 WEST PARK AVENUE, KOKOMO IN 46904
Brian R Shelton	director	67 GLENMOOR DRIVE, ENGLEWOOD CO 80113
Alicia B Masse	director	1020 WEST PARK AVENUE, PO BOX 9013, KOKOMO IN 46904-9013
Scott R Pinkham	officer: V.P. - Manufacturing Planning	1020 WEST PARK AVENUE, KOKOMO IN 46904
Losch Marlin C Iii	officer: V.P. - International Sales	14634 BEACON BOULEVARD, CARMEL IN 46032
Van Bibber David Sean	officer: Controller, Chief Acctng Oficr	C/O HAYNES INTERNATIONAL, INC., 1020 WEST PARK AVE., P.O. BOX 9013, KOKOMO IN 46904
Angela Kohlheim	officer: General Counsel	1020 WEST PARK AVENUE, P.O. BOX 9013, KOKOMO IN 46904-9013
Venkat Ishwar	officer: VP - Technology	1020 WEST PARK AVENUE, KOKOMO IN 46904
Donald C Campion	director	3747 LOCH BEND DR., COMMERCE MI 48382
Michael L Shor	director, officer: President and CEO	CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION, PO BOX 14662, READING PA 19612
David L Strobel	officer: VP Operations	C/O CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION, PO BOX 14662, READING PA 19612
Janice Catherine Wilken	officer: VP-General Counsel & Secretary	1020 W. PARK AVENUE, P.O. BOX 9013, KOKOMO IN 46904-9013
Robert Getz	director	830 THIRD AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Larry O Spencer	director	2000 N M-63, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022