Harvard Bioscience (Harvard Bioscience) Predictability Rank

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What is Harvard Bioscience Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Harvard Bioscience Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Harvard Bioscience (Harvard Bioscience) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Harvard Bioscience Inc (NAS:HBIO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HBI:Germany

Address

84 October Hill Road, Holliston, MA, USA, 01746

Website

https://www.harvardbioscience.com

Harvard Bioscience Inc is a developer, manufacturer, and seller of technologies, specialized products and services that enable fundamental research, discovery, and pre-clinical testing for drug development. Its primary focus is scientific instruments used to advance life science and research. With operations in North America, Europe and china it sells through a combination of direct and distribution channels to customers around the world. The product brands of the company include Harvard Apparatus, DSI, Buxco, Biochrom, BTX, Heka, Hugo Sachs, Multichannel Systems MCS GmbH, and Panlab.. The majority of its revenue comes from the United States.

Executives

James W Green	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	12525 CHADRON AVENUE, HAWTHORNE CA 90250
Alan I Edrick	director	20200 SUNBURST STREET, CHATSWORTH CA 91311
Jennifer Cote	officer: Interim CFO	C/O HARVARD BIOSCIENCE, INC., 84 OCTOBER HILL ROAD, HOLLISTON MA 01746
Bertrand Loy	director	C/O ENTEGRIS, INC., 129 CONCORD RD, BILLERICA MA 01821
Thomas W Loewald	director	81 WYMAN STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
John F Kennedy	director	C/O NET PERCEPTIONS INC, 7700 FRANCE AVE. SOUTH, EDINA MN 55435
Katherine A. Eade	director	C/O HARVARD BIOSCIENCE, INC., 84 OCTOBER HILL ROAD #10, HOLLISTON MA 01746
Susan M. Steele	director	C/O HILL INTERNATIONAL, INC., 2005 MARKET ST., 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Kenneth Fletcher Olson	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O HARVARD BIOSCIENCE, INC., 84 OCTOBER HILL ROAD #10, HOLLISTON MA 01746
Michael A. Rossi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O HARVARD BIOSCIENCE, INC., 84 OCTOBER HILL ROAD #10, HOLLISTON MA 01746
Yash Singh	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O HARVARD BIOSCIENCE, INC., 84 OCTOBER HILL ROAD #10, HOLLISTON MA 01746
Jeffrey Duchemin	officer: Chief Executive Officer	14 EASTLAND TERRACE, HAVERHILL MA 01830
Kamalam Unninayar	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TETRAPHASE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 480 ARSENAL STREET, SUITE 110, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Robert E. Gagnon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BIOGEN IDEC INC., 133 BOSTON POST ROAD, WESTON MA 02493
George Uveges	director	C/O MFIC CORPORATION, 30 OSSIPEE ROAD, NEWTON MA 02464