The Hackett Group (The Hackett Group) Predictability Rank

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What is The Hackett Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Hackett Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Hackett Group (The Hackett Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » The Hackett Group Inc (NAS:HCKT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AWT:Germany

Address

1001 Brickell Bay Drive, Suite 3000, 30th Floor, Miami, FL, USA, 33131

Website

https://www.thehackettgroup.com

The Hackett Group Inc is an advisory firm. The company's offerings include executive advisory programs, benchmarking, executive advisory, business transformation, and cloud enterprise application implementation. The company's executive and practices advisory programs offer performance metrics, peer-learning opportunities, and practice implementation practices. Benchmarking services help organizations measure and assess internal efficiency and effectiveness. The business transformation programs help customers develop strategies to improve performance. The company's technology advisory services help clients improve decision-making capabilities and deploy software applications. The Hackett Group generates the majority of its revenue in the United States.

Executives

Wix Alan T G	director
Bofill Maria De Los Angeles	director	15550 SW 54 STREET, MIAMI FL 33185-4144
Robert A Rivero	director	1001 BRICKELL BAY DRIVE, SUITE 3000, MIAMI FL 33131
Richard N Hamlin	director	1001 BRICKELL BAY DRIVE, STE 3000, MIAMI FL 33131
John R Harris	director	2201 CEDEAR SPRINGS RD, SUITE 701, DALLAS TX 75201
Ted A Fernandez	director, officer: Chairman and CEO
Roberto A Ramirez,	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ANSWERTHINK, INC., 1001 BRICKELL DRIVE, SUITE 3000, MIAMI FL 33131
David N Dungan	director, officer: Vice Chairman and COO
Edwin A Huston	director	UNISYS CORP, UNISYS WAY, BLUE BELL PA 19424-0001
Terence M Graunke	director, 10 percent owner	676 N. MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 3900, CHICAGO IL 60611
Paul G Yovovich	10 percent owner	676 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 3900, CHICAGO IL 60611
Lake Capital Partners Lp	10 percent owner	676 N. MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 3900, CHICAGO IL 60611
Archstone Holdings Llc	10 percent owner
Lake Capital Investment Partners Lp	10 percent owner	676 N. MICHIGAN AVENUE, SUITE 3900, CHICAGO IL 60611
Archstone Intermediate Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	676 North Michigan Avenue, Suite 3900, Chicago IL 60611