Hudson Technologies (Hudson Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Hudson Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hudson Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hudson Technologies (Hudson Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Hudson Technologies Inc (NAS:HDSN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

300 Tice Boulevard, Suite 290, Woodcliff Lake, NJ, USA, 07677

Website

https://www.hudsontech.com

Hudson Technologies Inc is an American industrial products manufacturer. It develops products which are mainly used in commercial air conditioning, industrial processing, and refrigeration systems. The company products include refrigerant and industrial gases, refrigerant management services and RefrigerantSide services, which consist of system decontamination. These are performed at a customer's site using its Zugibeast system, which is a fast and portable system and allows the R-Side services team to accelerate critical services while saving customers time, money and aggravation. The company also owns a web-based real-time monitoring service which is used in the facility's refrigeration systems and other energy systems.

Executives

Richard Parrillo	director	101 S. FT. LAUDERDALE BEACH BLVD, FT. LAUDERDALE FL 33316
Eric A Prouty	director	107 SLOUGH RD, HARVARD MA 01451
Vincent P Abbatecola	director
Kenneth Gaglione	officer: VP-Operations	ONE BLUE HILL PLAZA, 14TH FLOOR, PEARL RIVER NY 10965
Nat Krishnamurti	officer: VP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O INVENTIV HEALTH, INC., 500 ATRIUM DRIVE, SOMERSET NJ 08873
Nicole E Bulgarino	director	C/O AMERESCO, INC., 111 SPEEN ST, SUITE 410, FRAMINGHAM MA 01701
Loan Nguyen Mansy	director	C/O HUDSON TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 300 TICE BOULEVARD, SUITE 290, WOODCLIFF LAKE NJ 07677
Stephen P Mandracchia	officer: Vice President, Secretary	2 HERITAGE COURT, WARWICK NY 10990
Kathleen Houghton	officer: VP - Sales and Marketing	ONE BLUE HILL PLAZA, 14TH FLOOR, PEARL RIVER NY 10965
Brian F Coleman	officer: President
Otto C Morch	director
Estate Of Kevin J. Zugibe	10 percent owner	30 TAVARONE STREET, GARNERVILLE NY 10923
Dominic J Monetta	director
Jill Kathleen Frizzley	director	P.O. BOX 1541, ONE BLUE HILL PLAZA, PEARL RIVER NY 10965
Ryan A Maupin	officer: Chief Restructuring Officer	P.O. BOX 1541, ONE BLUE HILL PLAZA, PEARL RIVER NY 10965