What is Hawaiian Electric Industries Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Hawaiian Electric Industries Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Hawaiian Electric Industries (Hawaiian Electric Industries) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1001 Bishop Street, Suite 2900, Honolulu, HI, USA, 96813
Hawaiian Electric Industries is the parent company of three Hawaii-based regulated utilities and Hawaii's American Savings Bank. The utilities provide electricity on the five islands of Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, and Lanai. Nearly 40% of electricity in its service territory comes from renewable energy; this portion is growing rapidly as the state has set a goal of 100% by 2045.
Executives
| Scott Deghetto |
officer: EVP, CFO & Treasurer |
P.O. BOX 730, HONOLULU HI 96808 |
| Bruce Tamashiro |
officer: Controller, PAO |
P.O. BOX 730, HONOLULU HI 96808 |
| Keith P Russell |
director |
200 SPECTRUM CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 2100, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Yoko Otani |
director |
P.O. BOX 730, HONOLULU HI 96808 |
| Michael J. Kennedy |
director |
P.O. BOX 730, HONOLULU HI 96808 |
| Elisia Flores |
director |
PO BOX 730, HONOLULU HI 96808 |
| Gregory C Hazelton |
officer: SVP - Finance |
220 NW SECOND AVENUE, PORTLAND OR 97209 |
| Lau Constance H |
director, officer: President |
C/O HAWAIIAN ELECTRIC INDUSTRIES, INC., P O BOX 730, HONOLULIU HI 96808 |
| Ann Teranishi |
officer: Pres & CEO, Amer Savings Bank |
P.O. BOX 730, HONOLULU HI 96813 |
| Kimura Shelee M.t. |
officer: Pres & CEO, Hawn Electric Co. |
C/O P.O. BOX 730, HONOLULU HI 96808 |
| Valueact Spring Master Fund, L.p. |
director, other: See Remarks |
ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129 |
| Valueact Spring Master Fund A, L.p. |
director, other: See Remarks |
ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, FOURTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129 |
| Richard F Wacker |
officer: Pres & CEO, Amer Savings Bank |
|
| Seu Scott W.h. |
officer: Pres & CEO, Hawn Electric |
C/O P.O. BOX 730, HONOLULU HI 96808 |
| Valueact Capital Management, Llc |
director, other: See Remarks |
ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129 |
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