Turtle Beach (Turtle Beach) Predictability Rank

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What is Turtle Beach Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Turtle Beach Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Turtle Beach (Turtle Beach) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Turtle Beach Corp (NAS:HEAR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0P1A:Germany 0P1A:Germany

Address

44 South Broadway, 4th Floor, White Plains, NY, USA, 10601

Website

https://corp.turtlebeach.com

Turtle Beach Corp is gaming audio and accessory brand offering a broad selection of gaming headsets for Xbox, PlayStation, and Nintendo consoles, as well as for PC, Mac, and mobile/tablet devices. The company's portfolio includes gaming headsets, PC gaming headsets, PC gaming keyboards, PC gaming mice and other accessories which are distributed internationally in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Australia, and Asia sold at thousands of storefronts, including retailers such as Amazon, Argos, Best Buy, GAME, GameStop, EB Games, Media Markt, Saturn, Target and Walmart. Geographically, it generates majority revenue from North America.

Executives

Cris Keirn	officer: Interim CEO	C/O TURTLE BEACH CORP, 44 SOUTH BROADWAY, 4TH FLOOR, WHITE PLAINS NY 10601
Katherine Lee Scherping	director	6312 SOUTH FIDDLERS GREEN CIRCLE, SUITE 200 NORTH, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Terry Jimenez	director	TRONC, INC., 435 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, CHICAGO IL 60611
Juergen M. Stark	director, officer: See Remarks	100 SUMMIT LAKE DRIVE, SUITE 100, VALHALLA NY 10594
Julia Sze	director	C/O 3636 N. CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 1200, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Michelle D Wilson	director	C/O WORLD WRESTLING ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 1241 EAST MAIN STREET, STAMFORD CT 06902
Andrew Wolfe	director	108 LEEWOOD CT., LOS GATOS CA 95032
William Z Wyatt	director	240 26TH STREET, SUITE 3, SANTA MONICA CA 90402
John T Hanson	officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary	11011 VIA FRONTERA, SUITE A/B, SAN DIEGO CA 92127
Lloyd Gregory Ballard	director	2 TOWNSEND ST, #2-1003, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
William E Keitel	director
Brian Stech	director	910 W. LEGACY CENTER WAY, SUITE 500, MIDVALE UT 84047
Yie-hsin Hung	director	30 HUDSON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Kelly Ann Thompson	director	921 LINCOLN PL, PACIFICA CA 94044
Ronald Doornink	director	3100 OCEAN PARK BLVD, SANTA MONICA CA 90405