FTAC Hera Acquisition (FTAC Hera Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is FTAC Hera Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FTAC Hera Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

FTAC Hera Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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FTAC Hera Acquisition (FTAC Hera Acquisition) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » FTAC Hera Acquisition Corp (NAS:HERA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2929 Arch Street, Suite 1703, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19104

Website

FTAC Hera Acquisition Corp is a blank check company. It is formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses or entities.

Executives

Laura Kohn	director	2929 ARCH STREET STE 1703, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Daniel G Cohen	officer: President and CEO	712 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Douglas Listman	officer: CFO and Secretary	2929 ARCH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2870
Mei Mei Tuan	director	C/O THE BANCORP, INC., 409 SILVERSIDE ROAD, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Betsy Z Cohen	director
Brittain Ezzes	director	2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 1703, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Jan Rock Zubrow	director	2929 ARCH STREET STE 1703, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Jewelle Bickford	director	2929 ARCH STREET STE 1703, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Leah Popowich	director	2929 ARCH STREET STE 1703, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Ftac Hera Sponsor, Llc	10 percent owner	2929 ARCH STREET STE 1703, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Ftac Hera Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	2929 ARCH STREET STE 1703, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104

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