Hugoton Royalty Trust (Hugoton Royalty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Hugoton Royalty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hugoton Royalty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Hugoton Royalty Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hugoton Royalty Trust (Hugoton Royalty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Hugoton Royalty Trust (OTCPK:HGTXU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

c/o Corporate Trustee, Simmons Bank 2911 Turtle Creek Boulevard, Suite 850, Dallas, TX, USA, 75219

Website

https://www.hgt-hugoton.com

Hugoton Royalty Trust holds net profits interests in oil and gas properties. The underlying properties of the trust include gas-producing properties in the Hugoton area of Oklahoma and Kansas, the Anadarko Basin of Oklahoma, and the Green River Basin of Wyoming. The net profit interests entitle the trust to receive majority of the net proceeds from the sale of oil and gas from the underlying properties.

Executives

Gary D. Simpson	officer: Sr VP Investor Rel & Finance, other: Advisory Dir - XTO Energy Inc.	810 HOUSTON STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Keith A Hutton	director, officer: President of XTO Energy Inc.	C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Jack P Randall	director, other: Director of XTO Energy Inc.
Adams William H Iii	director, other: Director of XTO Energy Inc.	C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Bennie G Kniffen	other: Sr. VP and Controller XTO
Louis G Baldwin	other: EVP-CFO of XTO Energy Inc.
Lane G Collins	other: Director of XTO Energy Inc.
Herbert D Simons	other: Director of XTO Energy Inc.
Timothy L Petrus	other: Exec VP - XTO Energy Inc.	810 HOUSTON STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Phillip R Kevil	other: Director-XTO Energy Inc.	C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Scott G Sherman	other: Director of XTO Energy Inc.
Vennerberg Vaughn O Ii	officer: Exec. VP-Admin. XTO Energy
Bob R Simpson	officer: Dir., CEO & Chair XTO Energy	C/O MORNINGSTAR PARTNERS, L.P., 400 WEST 7TH STREET, FORT WORTH TX 76102