Anywhere Real Estate (Anywhere Real Estate) Predictability Rank

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What is Anywhere Real Estate Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Anywhere Real Estate Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Anywhere Real Estate (Anywhere Real Estate) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Anywhere Real Estate Inc (NYSE:HOUS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

04M:Germany

Address

175 Park Avenue, Madison, NJ, USA, 07940

Website

https://www.anywhere.re

Anywhere Real Estate Inc provides integrated real estate services in the United States. Operations are divided into the following divisions: Anywhere Brands (Franchise Group), Anywhere Advisors (Owned Brokerage Group), and Anywhere Integrated Services (Title Group). The majority of revenue is derived from the Anywhere Advisors (Owned Brokerage Group) segment.

Executives

Michael J Williams	director	1100 15TH STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Enrique Silva	director	175 PARK AVENUE, MADISON NJ 07940
Perry Egbert L. J.	director	C/O ANYWHERE REAL ESTATE INC., 1, MADISON NJ 07940
Nashira W. Layade	officer: EVP & CTO, Technology Services	175 PARK AVE., MADISON NJ 07940
Donald J Casey	officer: Pres/CEO, Title Resource Group	175 PARK AVENUE, MADISON NJ 07940
Timothy B. Gustavson	officer: SVP, CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	175 PARK AVE., MADISON NJ 07940
Marilyn J. Wasser	officer: EVP, General Counsel and Sect.	175 PARK AVENUE, MADISON NJ 07940
Melissa K Mcsherry	officer: Chief Operating Officer	175 PARK AVENUE, MADISON NJ 07940
Felicia Williams	director	C/O MACY'S, INC., 151 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Tanya Reu-narvaez	officer: Chief People Officer	175 PARK AVE, MADISON NJ 07940
Susan Yannaccone	officer: Pres/CEO Realogy Franchise Grp	175 PARK AVE., MADISON NJ 07940
Muhammad Rizwan Akhtar	officer: EVP & CTO, Business Technology	175 PARK AVE., MADISON NJ 07940
V Ann Hailey	director	THREE LIMITED PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43230
Katrina L Helmkamp	officer: Pres/CEO, Cartus Corporation	1925 WEST FIELD COURT, SUITE 200, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Ryan M. Schneider	director, officer: President and COO	1680 CAPITAL ONE DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102