Healthcare Realty Trust (Healthcare Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Healthcare Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Healthcare Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Healthcare Realty Trust (Healthcare Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Healthcare Realty Trust Inc (NYSE:HR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HT0:Germany

Address

3310 West End Avenue, Suite 700, Nashville, TN, USA, 37203

Website

https://www.healthcarerealty.com

Healthcare Realty Trust Inc is a healthcare facility real estate investment trust. The company focuses on owning, leasing, and managing outpatient facilities and other healthcare properties. The company considers merger and acquisition investment as a component of its operational growth strategy. It works with developers that have strong ties to a local health system and physicians. The company works to invest in outpatient facilities that are integral to a hospital's operations. It generates all of its revenue in the United States.

Executives

Robert E Hull	officer: EVP - Investments	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Julie F. Wilson	officer: EVP - Operations	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, ATTENTION: ANDREW LOOPE, NASHVILLE TN 37203
John Knox Singleton	director
Kilroy James Joseph Iv	director	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Nancy H Agee	director	PO BOX 13007, ROANOKE VA 24030
Ajay Gupta	director	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Bryant John M Jr	officer: EVP and General Counsel	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
J Christopher Douglas	officer: EVP and CFO	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Amanda L Callaway	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Edward Hall Braman	director	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Todd J Meredith	director, officer: President and CEO	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Christann M Vasquez	director	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Lyle Peter F Sr	director	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
John V Abbott	director	3310 WEST END AVENUE, SUITE 700, NASHVILLE TN 37203
Reshma Block	director	16435 N SCOTTSDALE ROAD, SUITE 320, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254