Information Services Group (Information Services Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Information Services Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Information Services Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Information Services Group (Information Services Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Information Services Group Inc (NAS:III) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2187 Atlantic Street, Stamford, CT, USA, 06902

Website

https://www.isg-one.com

Information Services Group Inc is a US-based technology insight, market intelligence, and advisory services firm. It principally offers digital transformation services, such as automation and cloud & data analytics; managed governance; network carrier services; technology strategy & operations design; changes management; market intelligence & technology research and analysis. It operates in one segment, fact-based sourcing advisory services. Its geographical segments are the Americas, Europe, and Asia-pacific.

Executives

Michael P Connors	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO
Todd D. Lavieri	officer: Vice Chairman	C/O INFORMATION SERVICES GROUP, INC., 2187 ATLANTIC STREET, STAMFORD CT 06902
Michael A. Sherrick	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	2187 ATLANTIC STREET, STAMFORD CT 06902
Gerald S Hobbs	director
Bruce Pfau	director	C/O INFORMATION SERVICES GROUP, INC., 2187 ATLANTIC STREET, STAMFORD CT 06902
Neil G Budnick	director	C/O INFORMATION SERVICES GROUP, INC., TWO STAMFORD PLAZA, 281 TRESSER BLVD, STAMFORD CT 06901
Humberto P Alfonso	officer: EVP & CFO	1085 OCEAN AVENUE, MANTOLOKING NJ 08738
Thomas S. Kucinski	officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer	TWO STAMFORD PLAZA, 281 TRESSER BOULEVARD, STAMFORD CT 06901
David E. Berger	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	TWO STAMFORD PLAZA, 9TH FLOOR, STAMFORD CT 06901
Kalpana Raina	director	111 RIVER STREET, C/O JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Chevrillon & Associes	10 percent owner	4/6 ROND POINT DES CHAMPS ELYSEES, PARIS I0 75008
Christine Putur	director	TWO STAMFORD PLAZA, 281 TRESSER BOULEVARD, STAMFORD CT 06901
R James Cravens	officer: EVP, Chief HR & Comm Officer	TWO STAMFORD PLAZA, 281 TRESSER BOULEVARD, STAMFORD CT 06901
David Whitmore	officer: Vice Chairman, Pres.-ISG Amer.	TWO STAMFORD PLAZA, 281 TRESSER BOULEVARD, STAMFORD CT 06901
Guillermo Marmol	director	C/O FOOT LOCKER, INC., 112 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10120