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Impac Mortgage Holdings (Impac Mortgage Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Impac Mortgage Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Impac Mortgage Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Impac Mortgage Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Impac Mortgage Holdings (Impac Mortgage Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc (OTCPK:IMPM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
MVLA SURG MNDO TIO TSRI DUUO HKIT RTC CXAI DPSI COOP PFSI NSE:LICHSGFIN WD NSE:PNBHOUSING LSE:OSB BOM:543335 TSX:FN BOM:541988 LSE:PAG
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4000 MacArthur Boulevard, Suite 6000, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660
Website
https://www.impaccompanies.com
Impac Mortgage Holdings Inc is an independent residential mortgage lender. The company's segments include Mortgage Lending, Real Estate Services, and the Long-Term Mortgage Portfolio. The mortgage lending segment provides mortgage lending products through three lending channels, retail, wholesale, and correspondent, retains mortgage servicing rights, and provides warehouse lending facilities. Its Real estate services segment performs master servicing and provides loss mitigation services for securitized long-term mortgage portfolios, and Long-term mortgage portfolio consists of residual interests in securitization trusts.
Executives
Rhp Trust, Dated May 31, 2011 10 percent owner 1400 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 230, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Richard H/ Pickup 10 percent owner 1400 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 230, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
George A. Mangiaracina officer: President 19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612
Tiffany Entsminger officer: Chief Risk Officer,Head of Ops 19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612
Justin Moisio officer: Chief Administrative Officer 19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612
Joseph Piscina director 19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612
Obi Nwokorie director, officer: EVP, CIO and Director 19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612
Jon Gloeckner other: SVP Treasury 19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612
Thomas B Akin 10 percent owner 2400 BRIDGEWAY # 200, SUITE 200, SAUSALITO CA 94965
Joseph Joffrion officer: SVP, General Counsel 19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612
Katherine J. Blair director 228 MANHATTAN BEACH BOULEVARD, MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Nima Vahdat officer: General Counsel 19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612
Paul Licon other: Principal Accounting Officer 19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612
Todd M Pickup 10 percent owner 1400 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 230, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Stewart B. Koenigsberg director 19500 JAMBOREE ROAD, IRVINE CA 92612

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