What is Jacobs Solutions Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Jacobs Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Jacobs Solutions (Jacobs Solutions) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1999 Bryan Street, Suite 1200, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201
Jacobs Solutions is a global provider of engineering, design, procurement, construction, and maintenance services as well as cyber engineering and security solutions. The firm serves industrial, commercial, and government clients in a wide variety of sectors, including water, transportation, healthcare, technology, and chemicals. Jacobs Solutions employs approximately 60,000 workers. The company generated $16.4 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted operating income in fiscal 2023.
Executives
| Steven J. Demetriou |
director, officer: President and CEO |
25825 SCIENCE PARK DRIVE, SUITE 400, BEACHWOOD OH 44102 |
| Patrick Hill |
officer: Executive Vice President |
1999 BRYAN STREET, STE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Ralph E Eberhart |
director |
909 N. WASHINGTON STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314 |
| Allen William B Jr |
officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT |
C/O LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES N.V., DELFTSEPLEIN 27E, ROTTERDAM P7 3013AA |
| Claudia Jaramillo |
officer: CFO and EVP |
5959 SAN FELIPE, 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| Kevin C Berryman |
officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT |
521 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Thompson Christopher M.t. |
director |
10901 W. TOLLER DRIVE, SUITE 300, LITTLETON CO 80127 |
| Shannon Miller |
officer: Executive Vice President |
1999 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Stephen A Arnette |
officer: Executive Vice President |
1999 BRYAN STREET, STE 1300 TX 75201 |
| Priya Abani |
director |
1999 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Robert V Pragada |
officer: PRESIDENT - INDUSTRIAL |
C/O JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUP, INC., 1111 S. ARROYO PARKWAY, PASADENA CA 91105 |
| Michael R Tyler |
officer: SVP & General Counsel |
7565 IRVINE CENTER DRIVE, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Davidson Robert C Jr |
director |
|
| Dawne S Hickton |
director |
148 KENYON RD, PITTSBURGH PA 15205 |
| Linda Fayne Levinson |
director |
C/O JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUP INC, 1111 S ARROYO PKWY, PASADENA CA 91105 |
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