Kaival Brands Innovations Group (Kaival Brands Innovations Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2005. Start your Free Trial

What is Kaival Brands Innovations Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kaival Brands Innovations Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Kaival Brands Innovations Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Kaival Brands Innovations Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Kaival Brands Innovations Group (Kaival Brands Innovations Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Tobacco Products » Kaival Brands Innovations Group Inc (NAS:KAVL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4460 Old Dixie Highway, Grant, FL, USA, 32949

Website

https://www.kaivalbrands.com

Kaival Brands Innovations Group Inc is focused on growing and incubating innovative and profitable products. The company is engaged in the business of developing electronic nicotine delivery systems and related components. Its primary product includes Bidi Stick. The BIDI Stick comes in a variety of flavor options for adult cigarette smokers.

Executives

Stephen Alan Sheriff	officer: COO & IRO	4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY, GRANT-VALKARIA FL 32949
Thomas James Metzler	officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary	KAIVAL BRANDS INNOVATIONS GROUP, INC., 4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY, GRANT FL 32949
James Patrick Cassidy	director	14 SOUTH PACK SQUARE, SUITE 403, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Barry Michael Hopkins	director	KAIVAL BRANDS INNOVATIONS GROUP, INC., 4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY, GRANT FL 32949
David Worner	director	KAIVAL BRANDS INNOVATIONS GROUP, INC., 4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY, GRANT FL 32949
Mark L Thoenes	officer: Interim CFO	7700 N.E. AMBASSADOR PL, PORTLAND OR 97220
George T. Chuang	director	4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY, GRANT FL 32949
Nirajkumar Patel	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, CFO, President, Treasurer	4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY,, GRANT FL 32949
Paul John Reuter	director	4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY, GRANT FL 32949
Roger Brooks	director	4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY, GRANT FL 32949
Carolyn Hanigan	director	4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY, GRANT FL 32949
Eric Mosser	director, 10 percent owner, officer: COO, Secretary	4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY, GRANT FL 32949
Kaival Brands Innovations Group, Llc	10 percent owner	4460 OLD DIXIE HIGHWAY, GRANT FL 32949
Gmrz Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	780 RESERVOIR AVENUE, #123, CRANSTON RI 02910