Kaleido Biosciences (Kaleido Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Kaleido Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kaleido Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kaleido Biosciences (Kaleido Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Kaleido Biosciences Inc (OTCPK:KLDO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

65 Hayden Avenue, Lexington, MA, USA, 02421

Website

http://www.kaleido.com

Kaleido Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage healthcare company. It is focused on leveraging the potential of the microbiome organ to treat disease and improve human health. Its product candidates are Microbiome Metabolic Therapies, or MMTs, which are designed to modulate the metabolic output and profile of the microbiome.

Executives

Alison S Long	officer: Chief Medical Officer	KALEIDO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 65 HAYDEN AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Van Hylckama Vlieg Johan	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O KALEIDO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 65 HAYDEN AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Flagship Ventures Fund Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Daniel L Menichella	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	79 TW ALEXANDER DRIVE, 4101 RESEARCH COMMONS, RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK NC 27709
Kyriazi Theo Melas	director	2150 ST. ELZEAR BLVD. WEST, LAVAL A8 H7L 4A8
Nutritional Health Ltp Fund General Partner Llc	10 percent owner	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Nutritional Health Ltp Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, 8TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Anne Prener	director	C/O RUBIUS THERAPEUTICS, 399 BINNEY STREET SUITE 300, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
William E. Duke	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	C/O VALERITAS, INC., 750 ROUTE 202 SOUTH, SUITE 600, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Richard William Scalzo	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	25 ALBERTA LANE, HOLLISTON MA 01746
Jean K Mixer	director	C/O NXSTAGE MEDICAL, INC., 350 MERRIMACK STREET, LAWRENCE MA 01843
Jerald Korn	officer: General Counsel	128 GORDON RD, NEWTON MA 02468
Flagship Ventures Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE MEMORIAL DRIVE, 7TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Michael W Bonney	director, officer: Executive Chair	65 HAYDEN AVE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Flagship Venturelabs V Manager Llc	10 percent owner	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 800E, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142