Know Labs (Know Labs) Predictability Rank

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What is Know Labs Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Know Labs Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Know Labs (Know Labs) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Know Labs Inc (AMEX:KNW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

500 Union Street, Suite 810, Seattle, WA, USA, 98101

Website

https://www.knowlabs.co

Know Labs Inc is a medical diagnostic. The company is focused on the development, marketing, and sales of proprietary technologies that are capable of uniquely identifying or authenticating almost any substance or material using electromagnetic energy to record, detect, and identify the signature of the substance or material known as Bio-RFID and ChromaID technologies. It is developing a wearable device that will measure blood glucose without fingersticks or microneedles.

Executives

Todd Baszucki	10 percent owner	519 LOMA ALTA ROAD, CARMEL CA 93923
Jessica English	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	34 GRANADA DRIVE, CORTE MADERA CA 94925
Leonardo Mouta Trautwein	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	PO BOX 2021, PARK CITY UT 84060
Takesako Ichiro John Paul	director	500 UNION STREET, SUITE 420, SEATTLE WA 98101
Peter J Conley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3658 PRICE HILLS DRIVE, SAINT GEORGE UT 84790
Steven T Kent	officer: Chief Product Officer	185 CHANNEL ST, APT 545, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
William Arthur Owens	director	C/O CENTURYLINK, INC., 100 CENTURYLINK DRIVE, MONROE LA 71203
Ronald P Erickson	director, officer: Chairman	9437 NE CORAL COURT, BAINBRIDGE ISLAND WA 98110
Jon Pepper	director	500 UNION STREET, SUITE 810, SEATTLE WA 98101
Phillip Bosua	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and President	500 UNION STREET, SUITE 810, SEATTLE WA 98101
Jeff T Wilson	officer: CFO
Jeffrey Richard Kruse	other: Pres. of TransTech Systems Inc	12142 NE SKY LANE, SUITE 130, AURORA OR 97002
Todd Martin Sames	officer: V.P. of Business Development	500 UNION STREET, SUITE 420, SEATTLE WA 98101
Richard Mander	officer: VP Product Mgmnt & Technology	500 UNION STREET, STE 406, SEATTLE WA 98101
Bonderson Paul R Jr	director

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