Kite Realty Group Trust (Kite Realty Group Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Kite Realty Group Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kite Realty Group Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kite Realty Group Trust (Kite Realty Group Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Kite Realty Group Trust (NYSE:KRG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FGC1:Germany

Address

30 South Meridian Street, Suite 1100, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46204

Website

https://www.kiterealty.com

Kite Realty Group Trust that owns mainly community shopping centers concentrated in Indiana (39% of base rent), Florida (10.9%), Maryland (6.8%), New York (6%), North Carolina (5.4%) and Texas (25.7%). At year-end 2022, Kite owned interests in 183 retail operating properties and three commercial properties, representing 8.9 million of gross leasable area. It also had eight properties under development or redevelopment.

Executives

Steven P Grimes	director	RETAIL PROPERTIES OF AMERICA, INC., 2021 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 200, OAK BROOK IL 60523
John A Kite	director, officer: CEO, Pres & Trustee	KITE REALTY GROUP TRUST, 30 S MERIDIAN STREET, SUITE 1100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Charles H Wurtzebach	director	2901 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Gerald M Gorski	director	RETAIL PROPERTIES OF AMERICA, INC., 2021 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 200, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Bonnie Biumi	director	RETAIL PROPERTIES OF AMERICA, INC., 2021 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 200, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Peter L Lynch	director	2021 SPRING ROAD SUITE 200, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Derrick Burks	director	C/O EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES INC, TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Caroline L. Young	director	C/O KITE REALTY GROUP TRUST, 30 S. MERIDIAN STREET, SUITE 1100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
R Fear Heath	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O GGP INC., 350 N. ORLEANS, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60654
Lee A Daniels	director	2901 BUTTERFIELD ROAD, OAK BROOK IL 60523
William E Bindley	director
Barton R Peterson	director	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
David Buell	officer: Senior VP & CAO	KITE REALTY GROUP TRUST, 30 SOUTH MERIDIAN STREET, SUITE 1100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Thomas K Mcgowan	officer: EVP & COO	KITE REALTY GROUP TRUST, 30 S MERIDIAN STREET, SUITE 1100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Thomas R Olinger	officer: Senior VP & CAO	30 S. MERIDIAN STREET, SUITE 1100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204