Lannett Co (Lannett Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Lannett Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lannett Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lannett Co (Lannett Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Lannett Co Inc (OTCPK:LCINQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1150 Northbrook Drive, Suite 155, Trevose, PA, USA, 19053

Website

https://www.lannett.com

Lannett Co Inc develops, manufactures, packages, markets, and distributes generic versions of brand pharmaceutical products. It offers solid oral, extended-release, topical, nasal, and oral solution finished dosage forms of drugs that address a range of therapeutic areas, as well as ophthalmic, patch, foam, buccal, sublingual, soft gel, and injectable dosages. In addition, the company also provides its products for various medical indications comprising glaucoma, gastrointestinal, migraine, obesity, respiratory, and others. It operates in the segment of generic pharmaceuticals. Its customers include generic pharmaceutical distributors, drug wholesalers, chain drug stores, private label distributors, mail-order pharmacies, and others.

Executives

John C Chapman	director	9000 STATE ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19136
Timothy C Crew	officer: Chief Executive Officer	9000 STATE ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19136
Patrick G Lepore	director	17-17 ROUTE 208 N, FAIRLAWN NJ 07410
Melissa Rewolinski	director	9000 STATE ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19136
Jeffrey Farber	officer: Secretary
Samuel H Israel	officer: Chief Legal Officer	9000 STATE ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19136
John Abt	officer: Vice President of Quality	9000 STATE ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19136
John Kozlowski	officer: Chief Operating Officer	9000 STATE ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19136
David A Drabik	director	9000 STATE RD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19136
Paul Taveira	director	9000 STATE ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19136
Albert Iii Paonessa	director	9852 NW 2ND COURT, PLANTATION FL 33324
Kevin Smith	other: Vice President
Maureen Cavanaugh	officer: Senior Vice President and CCOO	9000 STATE ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19136
David Farber	officer: Treasurer
Arthur P Bedrosian	officer: President	P O BOX D 1400, POMONA NY 10970