Lincoln Educational Services (Lincoln Educational Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Lincoln Educational Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lincoln Educational Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lincoln Educational Services (Lincoln Educational Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Lincoln Educational Services Corp (NAS:LINC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

K1L:Germany

Address

14 Sylvan Way, Suite A, Parsippany, NJ, USA, 07054

Website

https://www.lincolntech.edu

Lincoln Educational Services Corp provides diversified career-oriented post-secondary education to high school graduates and working adults. The company offers programs in automotive technology, skilled trades, healthcare services, hospitality services and business and information technology. Its business is organized into three reportable business segments: Transportation and Skilled Trades, Healthcare and Other Professions (HOPS), and Transitional. It derives most of the revenue from the Transportation and Skilled Trades segment which offers academic programs mainly in the career-oriented disciplines of transportation and skilled trades such as automotive, diesel, HVAC, welding, and manufacturing.

Executives

Burke James J Jr	director	C/O ANNTAYLOR STORES CORP, 7 TIMES SQUARE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
J Barry Morrow	director	COLLEGIATE FUNDING SERVICES, 100 RIVERSIDE PARKWAY, FREDERICKSBURG VA 22406
Juniper Investment Company, Llc	10 percent owner	555 MADISON AVENUE, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-3315
Ronald Edward Harbour	director	C/O SPARTAN MOTORS INC, 1541 REYNOLDS ROAD, CHARLOTTE MI 48813
Brian K Meyers	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORPORA, 200 EXECUTIVE DR., STE. 340, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Kevin M Carney	director	12735 GRAN BAY PARKWAY WEST, BUILDING 200, JACKSONVILLE FL 32258
Scott M Shaw	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP, 200 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 340, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Chad D Nyce	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	C/O LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORPORA, 200 EXECUTIVE DR., STE 340, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Sylvia Jean Young	director	C/O LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORPORA, 14 SYLVAN WAY, STE. A, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Juniper Targeted Opportunity Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	555 MADISON AVENUE, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Felecia J. Pryor	director	3850 W. HAMLIN ROAD, AUBURN HILLS MI 48326
Michael A Plater	director	C/O LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP., 200 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 340, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Carlton Rose	director	C/O LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORPORA, 200 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 340, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Stephen M Buchenot	officer: Group VP of Operations	C/O LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP., 200 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 340, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Celia Currin	director	C/O LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP, 200 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 340, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052