Limbach Holdings (Limbach Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Limbach Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Limbach Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Limbach Holdings (Limbach Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Limbach Holdings Inc (NAS:LMB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

J4B:Germany J4B:Germany

Address

797 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, USA, 15086

Website

https://www.limbachinc.com

Limbach Holdings Inc is a commercial specialty contractor in the fields of heating, ventilation, air conditioning, plumbing, electrical, and building controls for the design and construction of new and renovated buildings, maintenance services, energy retrofits, and equipment upgrades. It operates in two segments namely General Contractor Relationships (GCR) and Owner Direct Relationships (ODR). The company generates maximum revenue from the GCR segment.

Executives

Jayme L. Brooks	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	21211 NORDHOFF STREET, CHATSWORTH CA 91311
Michael M Mccann	officer: Chief Operating Officer	797 COMMONWEALTH DRIVE, WARRENDALE PA 15086
Norbert W. Young	director	31-35TH STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15201
Gordon G Pratt	director, officer: President and CEO	1101 BRICKELL AVENUE, SOUTH TOWER, 8TH FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33131
Jay Sharp	officer: President of Limbach	797 COMMWEALTH DRIVE, WARRENDALE PA 15086
Nicholas Angerosa	officer: President of Harper	797 COMMWEALTH DRIVE, WARRENDALE PA 15086
Joshua Horowitz	director	72-38 113TH STREET, APARTMENT 3L, FOREST HILLS NY 11375
Bacon Charles A. Iii	officer: President and CEO	31-35TH STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15201
Linda G Alvarado	director	2140 LAKE PARK BOULEVARD, RICHARDSON TX 75080-2254
Laurel J Krzeminski	director	585 WEST BEACH STREET, PO BOX 50085, WATSONVILLE CA 95076
1347 Investors Llc	10 percent owner	150 PIERCE ROAD, 6TH FLOOR, ITASCA IL 60143
Palm Global Small Cap Master Fund Lp	director	C/O PALM MANAGEMENT (US) LLC, 19 WEST ELM STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Bradley C Palmer	other: Director by Deputization	C/O PALM MANAGEMENT (US) LLC, 19 WEST ELM STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Palm Management (us) Llc	director	19 WEST ELM STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Kingsway Financial Services Inc	10 percent owner	10 S. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 1520, CHICAGO IL 60606