Alliant Energy (Alliant Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is Alliant Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alliant Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Alliant Energy (Alliant Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Alliant Energy Corp (NAS:LNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

EVRG AGR PNW CMS CNP OGE AEE PPL ES IDA NEE SO DUK LSE:NG. AEP PCG D BOM:532555 EXC PEG

Traded in Other Exchanges

AY1:Germany

Address

4902 N. Biltmore Lane, Madison, WI, USA, 53718

Website

https://www.alliantenergy.com

Alliant Energy is the parent of two regulated utilities, Interstate Power and Light and Wisconsin Power and Light, serving nearly 985,000 electric customers and 425,000 natural gas-only customers. Both subsidiaries engage in the generation and distribution of electricity and the distribution and transportation of natural gas. Alliant also owns a 16% interest in American Transmission Co.

Executives

Ignacio A Cortina	director	1917 FOUR WHEEL DRIVE, OSHKOSH WI 54902
Raja Sundararajan	officer: Executive Vice President	1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Lisa M Barton	officer: President and COO	AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY, INC., 1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Stephanie Cox	director	C/O SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED, 5599 SAN FELIPE 17TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77056
Nancy Joy Falotico	director	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Michael Luhrs	officer: Senior Vice President	P.O. BOX 14720, MADISON WI 53708-0720
Michael Dennis Garcia	director	C/O DOMTAR CORPORATION, 234 KINGSLEY PARK DRIVE, FORT MILL SC 29715
De Leon David A	officer: Senior Vice President	P.O. BOX 14720, MADISON WI 53708-0720
James H Gallegos	officer: Sr. V.P.-Gen. Cnsl.-Corp. Sec.	1 WATER STREET, CAMDEN NJ 08102-1658
Patricia L Kampling	officer: VICE PRESIDENT	PO BOX 2568, MADISON WI 53701
Jillian C. Evanko	director	1 INFINITY CORPORATE CENTRE DRIVE, GARFIELD HEIGHTS OH 44125
Terry L Kouba	officer: Senior Vice President	P.O. BOX 14720, MADISON WI 53708-0720
Deborah B. Dunie	director	1710 SAIC DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Roger K Newport	director	703 CURTIS STREET, MIDDLETOWN OH 45043
Wayne A Reschke	officer: Senior Vice President	P O BOX 14720, MADISON WI 53708