Leap Therapeutics (Leap Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Leap Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Leap Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Leap Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Leap Therapeutics (Leap Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Leap Therapeutics Inc (NAS:LPTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

5MC:Germany 5MC:Germany

Address

47 Thorndike Street, Suite B1-1, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02141

Website

https://www.leaptx.com

Leap Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company developing novel therapies designed to treat patients with cancer by inhibiting fundamental tumor-promoting pathways and by harnessing the immune system to attack cancer cells. Its clinical stage program is DKN-01, a monoclonal antibody that inhibits Dickkopf-related protein 1, or DKK1. DKK1 is a protein that regulates the Wnt signaling pathways and enables tumor cells to proliferate and spread, as well as suppresses the immune system from attacking the tumor. The company is studying DKN-01 in multiple ongoing clinical trials in patients with esophagogastric cancer, gynecologic cancers, or prostate cancer. Its other clinical studies include P204,and P205.

Executives

Jason Baum	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	LEAP THERAPEUTICS, INC., 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Patricia A. Martin	director	316 BEECHWOOD FARM LANE, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46260
Christian M Richard	director	100 FEDERAL STREET, 19TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Richard Schilsky	director	LEAP THERAPEUTICS, INC., 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Beigene, Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O MOURANT GOVERNANCE SERVICES (CAYMAN), 94 SOLARIS AVENUE, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Christine Granfield	officer: VP, Head of Reg Affairs/Qual	C/O LEAP THERAPEUTICS, 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1-1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
John Mark O'mahony	officer: Chief Manufacturing Officer	C/O LEAP THERAPEUTICS, INC., 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1-1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Cynthia Sirard	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O LEAP THERAPEUTICS, INC., 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1-1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Joseph Edelman	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Perceptive Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Christopher Mirabelli	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO,Pres,Chairman of the Board	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 301, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Augustine Lawlor	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Operating Officer	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 301, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Douglas E Onsi	10 percent owner, officer: CFO,Gen Counsel,Treas, Sec.	C/O TOLERRX INC, 300 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Healthcare Ventures Ix, L.p.	10 percent owner	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 102, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142