Stride (Stride) Predictability Rank

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What is Stride Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Stride Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Stride (Stride) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Stride Inc (NYSE:LRN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0AJ:Germany

Address

11720 Plaza America, 9th Floor, Reston, VA, USA, 20190

Website

https://www.stridelearning.com

Stride Inc is an American online educational company. The company offers alternative programs to traditional on-campus schooling. It also operates state-funded virtual charter schools around the United States. The educational programs for K-12 students are usually monitored by parents and provide virtual classroom environments where teachers meet with students online, by phone, or in-person. The company's contractual agreements with various school districts to offer its curriculum programs provide a majority of the company's revenue. The company lines of business are Managed Public School Programs, Institutional, and Private Pay Schools and Other.

Executives

Robert Cohen	director	7900 HARKINS ROAD, LANHAM MD 20706
Eliza Mcfadden	director	2300 CORPORATE PARK DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20171
Les Ottolenghi	officer: Chief Info. & Tech. Officer	ONE CAESARS PALACE DRIVE, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Vincent Mathis	officer: EVP, General Counsel	2300 CORPORATE PARK DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20171
James Jeaho Rhyu	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2300 CORPORATE PARK DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20171
Donna Blackman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11720 PLAZA AMERICA DRIVE, 9TH FLOOR, RESTON VA 20190
Ralph R Smith	director	1615 WEST CHESTER PIKE, STE 200, WEST CHESTER PA 19382-7956
Allison Lawrence	director	11720 PLAZA AMERICA DRIVE, 9TH FLOOR, RESTON VA 20190
Joseph A Verbrugge	director	1221 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10020
Nathaniel A Davis	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	1500 ECKINGTON PLACE NE, WASHINGTON DC 20002
Shaun Mcalmont	officer: EVP, Career Technical Ed.	C/O LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP., 200 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 340, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Kevin Chavous	director	2300 CORPORATE PARK DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20171
Timothy Medina	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2300 CORPORATE PARK DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20171
Victoria D Harker	director	4300 WILSON BOULEVARD, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Howard D. Polsky	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	2300 CORPORATE PARK DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20171