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Anite (LSE:AIE) Predictability Rank


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What is Anite Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Anite Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Anite Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Anite's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Anite (LSE:AIE) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Anite PLC (LSE:AIE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XTAE:ONE SHSE:603189 ASX:FCL PDFS PAR AMSWA XTAE:MGIC TSE:3673 JSE:CTK SZSE:002232 DOMO LSE:IDEA TSX:CMG OHEL:QTCOM ATTU SHSE:688058 TSE:4776 OSTO:VIT B ASX:HSN SZSE:300609
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.anite.com
Anite PLC is a company incorporated in United Kingdom on March 7, 1984. It is a wireless testing company engaged in developing the software and hardware helping deliver the mobile technologies. The Company provides mobile device, infrastructure and network testing systems including hardware and software. The Company operates in two segments; Handset testing and Network testing. The Handset testing is a wireless test system enabling manufacturers to design efficient chipsets, mobile devices and network equipment. The Network testing technology enables mobile network operators and manufacturers to test and optimise their networks. The Company's Handset testing products include; Development Testing, Conformance Testing, Interoperability Testing, Propsim OTA Testing, Propsim Virtual Drive Testing, Propsim 802.11ac/n Testing, Propsim MANET Testing, Propsim Aerospace Testing, & Triton. The Company's Network testing products include; Nemo Outdoor, Nemo Handy, Nemo Walker Air, Nemo Invex, Nemo FSR1, Nemo Autonomous, Nemo Commander, Nemo Analyze, Nemo CEM Observer, and Nemo CEM Solution. Its customers include Device manufacturers, Chipset manufacturers, Mobile network operators, Mobile network operators, and Independent test companies.

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