What is Loyalty Ventures Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Loyalty Ventures Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Loyalty Ventures (Loyalty Ventures) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
7500 Dallas Parkway, Suite 700, Plano, TX, USA, 75024
Loyalty Ventures Inc provides coalition and campaign-based loyalty solutions through the Canadian AIR MILES Reward Program and BrandLoyalty Group B.V. It owns and operates the AIR MILES Reward Program, and Netherlands-based BrandLoyalty, a provider of purpose-driven, tailor-made campaign-based loyalty solutions for grocers and other high-frequency retailers. The AIR MILES Reward Program is a full-service outsourced coalition loyalty program for its sponsors who pay a fee per AIR MILES reward mile issued, in return for which the AIR MILES Reward Program provides all marketing, customer service, rewards and redemption management. BrandLoyalty designs, implements, conducts and evaluates and tailor-made loyalty programs for high frequency retailers worldwide.
Executives
| Barbara L Rayner |
director |
7500 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 700, PLANO TX 75024 |
| Charles L Horn |
director, officer: President and CEO |
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE INC., 2001 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 1600, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Roger H Ballou |
director |
C/O CDI CORP, 1717 ARCH ST 35TH FL, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
| Graham W Atkinson |
director |
1200 E. ALGONQUIN ROAD, ELK GROVE TOWNSHIP IL 60007 |
| Richard A. Genovese |
director |
2500 MCCLELLAN AVENUE, SUITE 350, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109 |
| Laura Santillan |
officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer |
17655 WATERVIEW PARKWAY, DALLAS TX 75252 |
| John Jeffrey Chesnut |
officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer |
7500 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 700, PLANO TX 75024 |
| Cynthia L Hageman |
officer: EVP, GC & Secretary |
7500 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 700, PLANO TX 75024 |
| Claudia Mennen |
officer: BrandLoyalty CEO |
7500 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 700, PLANO TX 75024 |
| Blair F Cameron |
officer: President, AIR MILES |
7500 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 700, PLANO TX 75024 |
| Alliance Data Systems Corp |
10 percent owner |
3095 LOYALTY CIRCLE, COLUMBUS OH 43219 |
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