ManpowerGroup (ManpowerGroup) Predictability Rank

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What is ManpowerGroup Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ManpowerGroup Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ManpowerGroup (ManpowerGroup) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » ManpowerGroup Inc (NYSE:MAN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 Manpower Place, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53212

Website

https://www.manpowergroup.com

Manpower is one of the three largest multinational firms in the fragmented and over $600 billion global staffing industry. The firm generates most of its sales outside the U.S. and boasts a vast global footprint. Its client base consists of mainly large and multinational companies, but the firm also services small and midsize businesses through its local branch network. It offers each main staffing service (temporary, permanent, and project based) across a variety of professions under its four subsidiary brands: Experis specializes in IT placements; Talent Solutions provides recruitment process outsourcing, or RPO, and outplacement services; Jefferson Wells serves finance, tax, and compliance needs; Manpower focuses on manufacturing, administrative, and assembly positions.

Executives

Donald O Mondano	officer: SVP, Global Controller	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Ulice Jr Payne	director	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Muriel Francoise Penicaud	director	22 PASSAGE COURTOIS, PARIS I0 75011
John T Mcginnis	officer: EVP, CFO	C/O MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Richard Buchband	officer: SVP, General Counsel	100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Cari M Dominguez	director	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Jean Philippe Courtois	director	MICROSOFT CORPORATION, ONE MICROSOFT WAY, REDMOND WA 98052-6399
William P Gipson	director	1201 S 2ND STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53204
Michelle Nettles	officer: Chief People & Culture	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Mara E Swan	officer: EVP	C/O ADOLPH COORS CO, 311 10TH ST. MH311, GOLDEN CO 80401-0030
Gina Boswell	director	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Jonas Prising	director, officer: CEO	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Van Handel Michael J	officer: EVP, CFO	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Sriram Chandrashekar	officer: EVP	10 HOE CHIANG ROAD #21, 04/05 KEPPEL TOWERS, SINGAPORE U0 089315
William Downe	director	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212