Matson (Matson) Predictability Rank

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What is Matson Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Matson Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Matson Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Matson (Matson) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Matson Inc (NYSE:MATX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

68M:Germany

Address

1411 Sand Island Parkway, Honolulu, HI, USA, 96819

Website

https://www.matson.com

Matson Inc is engaged in providing ocean transportation and logistics services. The business segments of the company are ocean transportation which provides ocean freight transportation services to the domestic non-contiguous economies of Hawaii, Alaska, California, Okinawa, and different islands in the South Pacific, and logistics which offers long haul and regional highway trucking services, warehousing and distribution services, supply chain management, and freight forwarding services. The firm generates the majority of its revenue from ocean transportation.

Executives

Grace M Cerocke	officer: Senior Vice President	1411 SAND ISLAND PARKWAY, HONOLULU HI 96819
Richard S Kinney	officer: Senior Vice President	1411 SAND ISLAND PARKWAY, HONOLULU HI 96819
Laura L Rascon	officer: Senior Vice President	1411 SAND ISLAND PARKWAY, HONOLULU HI 96819
Christopher A Scott	officer: Senior Vice President	1411 SAND ISLAND PARKWAY, HONOLULU HI 96819
Angoco Vic S Jr	officer: Senior Vice President	1411 SAND ISLAND PARKWAY, HONOLULU HI 96819
Matthew J Cox	officer: CFO of wholly-owned subsidiary	1411 SAND ISLAND PARKWAY, HONOLULU HI 96819
Kuuhaku T Park	officer: Senior Vice President	1411 SAND ISLAND PARKWAY, HONOLULU HI 96819
Peter T Heilmann	officer: SVP & Chief Legal Officer	555 12TH STREET, OAKLAND CA 94607
Leonard P Isotoff	officer: Senior Vice President	1411 SAND ISLAND PARKWAY, HONOLULU HI 96819
Mark H Fukunaga	director	MATSON, INC., 1411 SAND ISLAND PARKWAY, HONOLULU HI 96819
John P Lauer	officer: Senior Vice President	555 12TH STREET, OAKLAND CA 94607
Kevin L Stuck	officer: VP and Controller	426 N. 44TH STREET, 2ND FL., PHOENIX AZ 85008
Rusty K Rolfe	officer: Senior Vice President, other: President of Matson Logistics	1855 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, CONCORD CA 94520
Jenai S Wall	director	999 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Thomas B Fargo	director	P.O. BOX 730, HONOLULU HI 96808