What is Mallinckrodt Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Mallinckrodt Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Mallinckrodt (Mallinckrodt) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
College Business and Technology Park, Cruiserath, Blanchardstown, Dublin, IRL, 15
Mallinckrodt PLC develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes specialty pharmaceutical products and therapies. Its areas of focus include autoimmune and rare diseases in specialty areas like neurology, rheumatology, nephrology, pulmonology and ophthalmology; immunotherapy and neonatal respiratory critical care therapies; analgesics and gastrointestinal products. The company operates its business in two reportable segments namely Specialty Brands which include specialty pharmaceutical brands; and Specialty Generics which includes niche specialty generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients. It generates maximum revenue from the Specialty Brands segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Alta Fundamental Advisers Llc |
10 percent owner |
1500 BROADWAY, SUITE 704, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Jason Daniel Goodson |
officer: EVP & Head of Corp Development |
106 CENTRAL PARK AVENUE, WENTZVILLE MO 63885 |
| James R Sulat |
director |
|
| Paul Bisaro |
director |
|
| Sigurdur O Olafsson |
director, officer: President and CEO |
360 MOUNT KEMBLE AVENUE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960 |
| Stephen Andrew Welch |
officer: EVP & Head of Spec Generics |
18440 BRIDGEMORE LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40245 |
| Peter C Richardson |
officer: EVP & Chief Scientific Officer |
28903 NORTH AVENUE PAINE, VALENCIA CA 91355 |
| Susan Michele Silbermann |
director |
C/O LIANBIO, 103 CARNEGIE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 215, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Lisa French |
officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer |
301 CONTINENTAL LANE, PAOLI PA 19301 |
| Mark Anthony Tyndall |
officer: EVP & Chief Legal Offi & Secre |
1101 Q ST NW, WASHINGTON DC 20009 |
| Henriette Nielsen |
officer: EVP & Chief Transformation OFC |
202 WEST 85TH STREET, APT. 5, NEW YORK NY 10024 |
| Karen Ling |
director |
C/O FOREST LABORATORIES, INC., 909 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Anne Clem Whitaker |
director |
109 BRIERY BRANCH COURT, MORRISVILLE NC 27560 |
| Olifant Luxco S.a R.l. |
10 percent owner |
19, RUE DE BITBOURG, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1273 |
| Paul Rutherford Carter |
director |
SOUTH BUILDING, 2 ROUNDWOOD AVENUE, STOCKLEY PARK X0 UB11 1AF |
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