Immunogen (Immunogen) Predictability Rank

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What is Immunogen Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Immunogen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Immunogen (Immunogen) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Immunogen Inc (NAS:IMGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IMGN:Mexico IMU:Germany

Address

830 Winter Street, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

https://www.immunogen.com

Immunogen Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company from the United States. Its focus is antibody-drug conjugate, or ADC, technology, which uses an antibody that fixes on a target (its antigen) found on tumor cells to deliver a specific cancer-killing agent.

Executives

Theresa Wingrove	officer: VP of Regulatory Affairs	IMMUNOGEN, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Renee Lentini	officer: V.P.-Fin., Prin. Acctg. Off.	830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Stacy Ann Coen	officer: Chief Business Officer	11 RUSH POND RD, LAKEVILLE MA 02347
Kristine Peterson	director	AMARIN CORPORATION, MYSTIC PACKER BLDG., 12 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, MYSTIC CT 06355
Lauren White	officer: SVP, CFO and PFO	C4 THERAPEUTICS, INC., 490 ARSENAL WAY, SUITE 200, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Mark J Enyedy	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O FATE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3535 GENERAL ATOMICS COURT, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Isabel Kalofonos	officer: SVP & CHIEF COMMERCIAL OFFICER	C/O IMMUNOGEN, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Michael Vasconcelles	officer: EVP R&D & MEDICAL AFFAIRS	C/O UNUM THERAPEUTICS, 200 CAMBRIDGEPARK DR., STE. 3100, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Daniel Char	officer: SVP & CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER	C/O EVELO BIOSCIENCES, INC., 620 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 200, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Kristen Harrington-smith	officer: SVP & Chief Commercial Officer	C/O IMMUNOGEN, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Tracey L Mccain	director	C/O BLUEPRINTS MEDICINES CORPORATION, 38 SIDNEY STREET, SUITE 200, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Helen M. Thackray	director	C/O GLYCOMIMETICS, INC., 401 PROFESSIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 250, GAITHERSBURG MD 20879
David G Foster	officer: V.P.-Fin., Prin. Acctg. Off.	C/O IMMUNOGEN, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Susan Altschuller	officer: SVP and CFO	45 TENNYSON ST., SOMERVILLE MA 02145
Craig Barrows	officer: Vice-President,General Counsel	C/O IMMUNOGEN, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451